Kumowizard

SP500 - Back up or down again? Maybe some down today...

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
95 0 0
Honestly, I have now clue what it will do in next few days or weeks. I can only tell you what I see now.

Daily: The long term bullish trend line held so far. Slow Stoch gave a buy signal there and we had appr 2 % correction from the lows. Price retested Kijun Sen within the Kumo. Chikou Span is below Price but still above Kumo. This is a consolidation zone. Tenkan/Kijun cross is medium bearish .
Based on the daily chart for me it is impossible to tell where it goes from here.

4 Hrs: After 1960-1955 breakdown the counter bearish move met my previous corrective tgt             , actually it went even lower. price retraced to the Kumo and 100 WMA. This is again a grey zone here. The consolidation can go in any direction. It has almost even chance to go to 1920 or up to 1947-1950. Ok, let's say a down move has a bit bigger chance today, as Slow Stoch is turning down from overbought. So if I really have to chose, I'd sell it for today at 1938-1940 with a tight stop.

Maybe the best is just not to touch it now at all. It can turn to bearish again only below 1919, and really bullish again only above 1955.

There are times when it is wise not to have any position, or just have really smalls.

p.s.: a massive selloff could start below 1900. In general I just don't think it is good idea to hold too much strategic long equity position. Upside vs risks is just not good at all. I don't say rush into strategic shorts, I just say be careful if you got used to the always buy the dips forever rally in the last 5-6 years.
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