This is an update, following from the previous posting entitled, "More on 4th Wave Triangle Potential".
I am viewing the recent action since the 1833.5 low as a developing bearish triangle (a 4th wave).
I previously stated: "If this small rally [from 1910.4] reaches above 1976.2, but remains below 1995.4, it may mean that the triangle wave "c" is more complex (would not surprise me) ...
The rally has indeed moved above 1976.2, and although I do still view this as a developing triangle as long as the 1995.4 level is not exceeded, I have adjusted my wave count for the triangle as shown above. A "c" wave of a triangle often develops with this type of 3-leg structure.
I suspect wave "c" finished at 1993.6, coming in just barely under the top of wave "a", which is its theoretical limit in a contracting triangle. When wave "d" develops, it should end above the wave "b" bottom of 1901.6. I will then be able to measure the expected post-triangle thrust. Wave "e" should then be the final wave upward in the triangle (ending below wave "c") from the end of which the downward thrust would begin.
Comments
AynCzubas
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1935.6~1946.6 would be my best guess as to where wave "d" will bottom, as these levels represent .5 and .618 of the length of wave "b", respectively.
AynCzubas
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Wave "d" has dropped to 1934.4 and leveled out within the range I guessed at yesterday. The upturn occurring now may be wave "e", the final leg of the triangle.
AynCzubas
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My guess for wave "e"'s peak is about 1972.
AynCzubas
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If 1968.4 was where wave "e" ended, then wave 4 is complete and we might see a minimum drop of the 5th wave to 1838_1805
AynCzubas
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We have what certainly counts as an impulsive/motive wave sequence, so far, heading downward from 1968.4, which may indicate that the thrust downward has begun.,