IvanLabrie
Long

SPX: 2-Month timeframe signal will possibly trigger soon...

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
The long term trends that were triggered on Nov 2011, Jan 2013 and Nov 2016, plotted as an overlay to the current daily chart , paint a bullish picture for $SPX and our stocks portfolio as a whole. The long term chart is about to confirm a rally, like how it did back then on those 3 occasions. If it does, we will likely be higher by the end of the year, in the order of 13% higher for the index, give or take. Corrections along the way, could be 5 days long on average, and as much as 6.4% deep, but I don't think that will be the case, since volatility in 2011 was much higher than now, and currently distorting the average correction size significantly.

With dems having lower probability of being elected, and a trade deal being closer to becoming a reality, plus negative sentiment having peaked, with Gold and Bonds hitting long term tops possibly, and everyone absolutely hating stocks...I want to be long and let things pan out, same as we do with $BTC for a while now.
Let's see how things evolve here, price action in the short term is constructive, with the daily targets show on chart (yellow boxes).

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.
Sep 09
Comment:
Sep 11
Comment: Looks good so far:
Sep 12
Comment: I'm heavily long stocks since last week, sold my $SPX long today for now, but I'll probably have to buy it back soon. You could say I was scared in profit. Implies continuation... I'll watch closely.
Sep 12
Comment: Still holding my stocks portfolio despite having sold the futures position. ($NVDA, $BABA, and others)
Sep 12
Comment:
Sep 26
Comment: #SPX has all of October left still, to finally confirm the huge uptrend I'm seeing as possible here in the 2-Month timeframe, this aligns with #BTCUSD's chart as well, interestingly...A boon in risk on assets will prove beneficial for crypto:
Oct 02
Comment: This level could be support in #SPX or it could break down and trend much lower if it doesn't hold:
Oct 02
Comment: If it holds up during 20 more minutes we could try going long here with a tight $10-30 stop.

Oct 08
Comment: Given general conditions, this signal might turn into a failure, I'd suggest taking a step back and holding cash, #BTC, #ETH, #Gold, #Silver, #Miners, be cautious with stock holdings. Liquidity wasn't enough to absorb supply, and the rally we had from support since last week is failing. Situation with China is getting worse, and Trump's position weakening...
Oct 08
Trade closed manually
Oct 12
Trade active: Since the market recovered, there was no follow through in sell pressure, and we're very close to confirming a huge long term uptrend signal in stocks: I would buy back in on new highs...
Oct 25
Trade active:
Trending up!
Nov 19
Comment: So far so good...Trend is up long term it seems, this may keep going until 2021, easily. Problem is finding buy entries on VIX spikes, and knowing when to hedge before corrections, but overall good to hold long term stock positions now.
Nov 27
Trade closed manually:
Despite no one believing the rally, prices keep grinding higher...

'This is a bull market after all!'

I'll be looking for a consolidation to buy back since I sold today.
Dec 03
Trade active: Bought back on the dip.
Dec 07
Comment: If #SPX holds over 3081, it has time until Dec 18th to hit the two targets on chart (yellow arrows) Tracing those trends would give us a safety net for our last entry, since this trade should be held following the long term trend in #SPX, for months...
Dec 26
Comment: I copied the action from all the times a 2 month timeframe trend signal confirmed in SPX since 2009, and the average of those patterns was the blue arrow in my chart. You can see that it moved following my expected path overall:


Stocks are a hold, direction is up, in the long term. Short term dislocations between now and mid to late 2021 will be buying opportunities. Watch the $VIX chart, spikes in this indicator will be good opportunities for dip buyers once volatility recedes.
Jan 27
Trade active: BTFD:
Jan 28
Comment: Looks about right for a massive bottom...$VIX spiked more than $5, and slowed down at the bottom:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
People reached peak bearishness, now RgExp from a mode. Mode retest held...
I think we got the bottom in stocks.
Jan 31
Trade closed manually: I sold the rally when $VIX dropped after initially surging, then shorted #AAPL. I'm not yet back in #SPX longs.
Jan 31
Comment: This was a logical level for #SPX to find bids to support the market, we should see #VIX slow down going into Monday's session, else #SPY might gap down next week: 50 EMA buyers might be right here, but not sure if they are the strong side of the market.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Crypto, Equities and Commodities. Contact me here or @ http://www.fb.me/LabrieTrading

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