finitemonk

Wave 4 - ZigZag?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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To the side is often a good position.

The markets have gone a bit '4'. (I think the EuroDollar is maybe in a four also, WTI is certainly sitting at wave four price point)

Wave Four KeyWords: Disappointment & Confusion - there is plenty of the latter.

Labelled as I had is yesterday I was sure it was over: now I'm not. I THINK one more leg down, to complete a 5 wave move. What I'm most sure about is because of the way it is moving that was not the top. It just don't look right. No clear & distinct motive wave pattern down, & not yet (with qualification) lost the broader uptrend. A trend is not over until the trend line is broken.

The way it is moving is 3 up, with 2 motive looking waves down. It might hit 1977. The key shape seems to be roughly a falling wedge of sorts.

Frustrating? Yep! The number of times I'm like, ffs, make up your mind!

3 key 'events' next week: (1) Fed FOMC etc 17th (2) start of EU 'QE': first 18th. (3) Alibaba IPO also 18th (largest tech IPO ever), (not S&P listed) but I'm interpreting it as maybe injecting required irrational exuberance to lift markets to a new high. Something it would appear has to break the interim sell off & provide the final whoop-whoop!.
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