finitemonk

Wave 4 - ZigZag?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
1
To the side is often a good position.

The markets have gone a bit '4'. (I think the EuroDollar is maybe in a four also, WTI is certainly sitting at wave four price point)

Wave Four KeyWords: Disappointment & Confusion - there is plenty of the latter.

Labelled as I had is yesterday I was sure it was over: now I'm not. I THINK one more leg down, to complete a 5 wave move. What I'm most sure about is because of the way it is moving that was not the top. It just don't look right. No clear & distinct motive wave pattern down, & not yet (with qualification) lost the broader uptrend. A trend is not over until the trend line is broken.

The way it is moving is 3 up, with 2 motive looking waves down. It might hit 1977. The key shape seems to be roughly a falling wedge of sorts.

Frustrating? Yep! The number of times I'm like, ffs, make up your mind!

3 key 'events' next week: (1) Fed FOMC etc 17th (2) start of EU 'QE': first 18th. (3) Alibaba IPO also 18th (largest tech IPO ever), (not S&P listed) but I'm interpreting it as maybe injecting required irrational exuberance to lift markets to a new high. Something it would appear has to break the interim sell off & provide the final whoop-whoop!.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.