Upside: 4.5% Speed: 3 Months (Slow) Confidence 5/10 Risk High
View: As long as above 2060, SP500 could climb to 2200 in the next 3 months. If so, the correlation between stocks within the index will be low. Expect rotation. Note: Brasil EWZ, WTI, Sugar are reaching close to important lows (bottom) while apple is falling from the cliff.
Risk: Below 1960, SP500 would enter a new dynamic, not necessarily vertically down but very weak and would probably slide lower to 2000/1960
Comments
IvanLabrie
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Looks good, I'm waiting for confirmation to go long, I guess it would be better with options.
YaKa
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Ivan, I think options will burn your theta with no profit - Speed expected is too low to be able to monetise...
To be honnest better be long elswhere on single stock or brasil closer to bottom.
on SP500 if 2200 we will eventually get the top we are looking for 1 year now... so not being long is not an issue.
stop 2050 otherwise: 1 by 2 which is ok.
IvanLabrie
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I'm long Dax since 11422. Aiming for 14723-13256.
S&P, I'd rather short the top as you say. Good call about individual stocks.
Peninha
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Hi Yaka ! I follow you at one year, and i respect a lot your shares. But i have a doubt right now: You've been during writing for an imminent drop at several months (im also waiting at months for short opportunity), but now you write about a bull wave until the end of the year, and almost at same time, you give a "well done" to "SP500 is topping" idea . tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/l5d7zWfh-The-S-P-500-Is-Topping/. Its ok that you change your mind as the market changes, but could you give some answers please, on fundamentals or technical, so i can understand better your view ?
1 - Why you trust in "as long as 2060" is support as bull signal for a jump until 2200 ?
2 - You agree that "SP500 is topping" (MACD cross like in 2007 and 2001) but slow, and this 3 months wave to 2200 would be the "kiss of death" before big correction ? Or by other side, you believe SP500 will continue the bull trend during 2016 no matter what indicators tell now ?
3 - Why in your "SPX-Still in the Pipe" recent idea you suggest short at 2180 (lower than 2200) ? Just to be safe to entry at time enough ?
Thank you !
YaKa
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Thank you for following me and asking fair questions.
Generally if things change, I too change. Here DAX collapsed, China collapsed... SPX did NADA.
Technically as long as spx above 2040/2060 there is no damage to the structure.
2180/2200: who cares.
i still think the next 2 years will be corrective, i am just trying to fit to what is happening. If market closes 2 weeks below 2040, i will probably change my mind again.
Let me add: not an easy market.
Peninha
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Fair enough. Its clear to me now. Really appreciate your answers.
Wish you good trades !