FractalTrader
Short

critical juncture will be reached tomorrow

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
515 3 11
the 1960 level I've been waiting a month for has finally been reached. there is a series of ABC's in a converging formation, creating what is likely a diagonal C wave on the bigger picture. The 3 horizontal red lines are the levels I'll be watching for a reversal confirmation. Each successive one provides higher confidence in the turn.

My bias is to the short side for a resumption of the higher degree bear trend. If the market somehow keeps going, past 1970, then it will be time to step back and re-evaluate. Over the weekend I'll post some bigger picture market risk profiles.
f1l1per. PRO
10 months ago
Great analysis , man. I was hoping for it not break 1946, but it did yesterday. We are caught between a possible cycle wave 4 here turning into a five, or a beginning of bear market, with a five truncation that already happened at the end of 2015. I was doubting this last one in previously analysis but now im starting to convince myself this is really a bear market begin.
As you well said, it's a critical moment.
Cheers
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Reekardo
10 months ago
thanks for the great chart. the ES mini hit 1968... does that count as a breakout? or do you only consider RTH prints? thanks
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wanted to update this thread. Today's market action definitely constituted validation in my mind, and I'll continue to watch for those levels above to be taken out as further confirmation. I wanted to post this updated chart for one simple reason. When looking at the market in Elliott terms, you are always thinking of things in terms of 3's and 5's. Should the market stall and reverse in the 1915 area, that increases the likelihood that the move lower is a 3-wave move. That simply would not be good for the bigger picture thesis, since 3 waves is countertrend, for the most part. What we want to see here is impulse wave behavior, which means a strong wave 3 down. In other words we want to see 1915 taken out, and on strong momentum.
snapshot
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