The S&P 500 index is breaking all time highs every week. However, it looks set for a fall.
Fundamental: The US economy is strong. NFP was healthy, and whilst GDP missed on expectations, the FOMC's last statement was hawkish. In the medium term, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates, which should put pressure on the global stock market.
Technical: The weekly and monthly charts are showing strong divergence. On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 has been outside an 800-period BB for months. On the monthly chart, there is strong divergence which historically points to a long overdue, deep correction in the stock market.
In the short term, the index may test 2200.
However, in the medium to long term, it is due for a correction, perhaps to the 1900 level (a missed monthly pivot).
Furthermore, a break below 1800 (recent support from January 2016) should open the doors for a further decline.
Comment
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On Friday, the SPX closed down at 2123. The next interim target is the 2000 level, however, how long it takes to get there is unpredictable.
you always get the story after the move has happened though :) so might as well try
Reekardo
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what chart are you talking about? so the breakout after 2 year consolidation means nothing?
Exercise-Discipline
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Hi mate, I'm talking about the divergence on the monthly chart, and the uncorrected move to the upside on the weekly chart (the index has been outside the 800-period BB for months on a weekly chart).
The breakout after a 2 year consolidation would mean something, if it was supported by strong fundamental reasons. IMO the move to the upside is overdone, and we might see a deep correction especially after the US election when the Fed might become more hawkish.
Also, the stock market goes in cycles. Since 2008-9, we haven't had a major correction in stocks. Interest rates have been ridiculously low for 8 years. The amount of debt accumulated is unbelievable. If interest rates do start to rise, this may be the beginning of a bear cycle in the stock market.