My view is this: It does not matter anymore if the Fed adopts a hawkish or a dovish tone.
The S&P 500 will fall. If not today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It's overdue. Just wait for it.
They have been artificially psyching it up for so long now, at some point it will become clear to everyone that things can not go on like this.
And then with the sudden rush to the exit it can become quite ugly.
I imagine the headlines of tomorrow:
Donald Trump gets very angry, slashes around himself, blames Jay Powell: "It's all his fault! My stocks could have gone up and up forever!"
UnknownUnicorn266486
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@ReallyMe, you're ignoring the time value and it can get you in a lot of trouble. That narrative has been strong since 2015, I guess my point would to express caution because this environment can last longer than most can comprehend!
@ROB.Reynolds, Thanks, we all can use a bit of luck in a crazy market, that's right. Nobody knows how long this environment can last, neither you nor me. But I do not think I am ignoring the time value. I am also not the one who has been repeating this narrative since 2015. On the contrary, I was pretty optimistic until the autumn of last year. What I said was my current opinion taking into account the time value. When I look at the chart, I see that since the beginning of last year, S&P 500 has formed an immense head-and-shoulders formation of unprecedented proportions.
Left shoulder: 2872 on Jan 26, 2018
Head: 2940 on Sep 21, 2018
And I dare to say, right shoulder: 2852 on March 19, 2019
Anyway, should it fail to break above the neck line, it's gonna be an epic, really massive fall. That's where I was coming from.
I expect two bottoms, first one by August 2019, then pullback to an intermediate top in March 2020 and then decline and retracement all the way down to 2100 by Q1 2021. That's how I currently appreciate the time value. ;-) We will see. Good luck to you, too
ReallyMe
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@ReallyMe, ...2100 will be the first bottom, second retracement will go all the way down to 1800.
CryptoTA4U
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@ReallyMe, Nice. Pretty much what I expect. Bottom between 1800 and 2100 (closer to 1800) sometime in 2021. Now if it will just play out this way!
ReallyMe
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@CryptoTA4U, We will see. The plan would be to closely monitor the market and adjust your view accordingly. Only rarely does the market do what you expect. Stay firm and humble do not hesitate to change your view if the market starts going against you. That would be my plan ;-)
CryptoTA4U
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@ReallyMe, Yep. My view is pretty much invalidated if we make a new high this year.
UnknownUnicorn266486
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@CryptoTA4U & @ReallyMe after updating my data yesterday morning, I tend to agree! Huge drops are expected for employment over the next 6 months. I was subscribing to the notion that the current wage growth would = increased spending but not in a slow down!
CryptoTA4U
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@ROB.Reynolds, I respect your analysis, so hearing that your analysis is starting to line up with my TA (my thoughts are almost purely based on TA) gives me some encouragement. I like to hear your FA to see if it conforms with or refutes my TA. I've also been paying close attention to Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley. He seems the most bearish of main stream analysts, and the picture he paints for the fundamentals of this market don't support current SPX prices (he had at one point suggested we'd retest the recent lows this year though I he may have backed off on that call).
I'm also watching AAPL very closely at this time. It appears to me it could be a significant bellwether for the rest of the market. My TA on AAPL suggests significant challenges ahead for the price of its stock. AAPL is great for TA as well since it is so widely held (similar to an index ETF).
The S&P 500 will fall. If not today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It's overdue. Just wait for it.
They have been artificially psyching it up for so long now, at some point it will become clear to everyone that things can not go on like this.
And then with the sudden rush to the exit it can become quite ugly.
I imagine the headlines of tomorrow:
Donald Trump gets very angry, slashes around himself, blames Jay Powell: "It's all his fault! My stocks could have gone up and up forever!"