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RHTrading
Aug 31, 2020 7:58 AM

S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($62) Short

S&P 500 index of US listed sharesFXCM

Description

The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, notching a string of all-time highs,
and seeing the rally since March foster an "official" bull market.

The pandemic has sped up key structural trends and triggered substantial
market swings, precipitating an urgent need to rethink strategic asset allocations.
Among the big changes: We favor reduced exposure to nominal developed market
(DM) government bonds and greater allocations to inflation-linked bonds, as interest
rates approach their lower bounds and inflation risks grow in the medium term.

Neutral: Last 8 weeks
Bear Bias Week 1 (last week): Incorrect ~ SPX +3.26%


- Apple + Tesla split
- Sector Dispersion Increasing
- POSITIVE VACCINE SENTIMENT DRIVES STOCKS HIGHER
- FED TO ADJUST INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK
- TREASURY YIELDS CLIMB
- NEGATIVE RETURNS FOR MUNIS
- ABE’S RESIGNATION UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN CHANGE IN POLICY

Best of luck next week,
- RH

Comment

Quite the reversal today..
Comments
blondengineer
Why I just went long S&P:

blondengineer
I want to see some supports getting lost before positioning myself short. So far, I'm following the trend long with close stops.

Thanks for the warning. Your broader perspective helps me question what I'm doing and get ready to change my hat.
RHTrading
@blondengineer, The week is still young, let's revisit on Friday and compare trades.

Without assuming too much, I think different timeframes are likely the source of disagreement.
First, my weekly "call" is a bias and doesn't necessarily mean that I am making a trade.
Second, my weekly chart is on the 1hr timeframe and has no relation to the "call" which typically is made from the 1-day, 4-hr timeframe.

Successful trading is always an emotional battle. A man must know himself thoroughly if he is going to make a good job out of trading, and life.
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