S&P Near-term Target: +-1930

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
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Following my forecast that the S&P 500             is currently moving down in wave "D" of a bearish contracting triangle which began in 2009...

There are several factors in wave development which are aligning to suggest that wave "D" will reach the 1930 area, possibly before the end of this month.

So far, from 2116.4, the wave structure has included an impulse down to 2069, followed by a contracting triangle ending at 2082.4. That triangle yielded a thrust measurement portending a decline to 1961.4. Assuming the distance from 2069 to 1961 represents a Fibonacci 78.6% of the potential total thrust distance (a common phenomenon), the 100% mark would be at about 1928.

Price has followed that path impulsively, having apparently completed the first four waves and now in the midst of a developing extended 5th wave which I believe will complete the sequence and wave "D". The internals of this extended 5th wave, according to my count at the moment and using conventional proportions for relative wave lengths, imply completion at 1932.

The trendline channel for the whole structure down from 2116.4 so far is aiming at November 19-20th. Coincidentally, the upward trendline coming from the 1833.5 wave "B" low and the 1870.38 wave "(B) of C" low (the two most recent lows) intersects to provide support to the above points at around 1922-1924

61.8% of the previous wave "B" is about 1928.4, and a wave "D" is commonly 61.8% of the associated "B".
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