Kumowizard
Short

SP500 - Go short with 1877 stop

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
269 4 2
4 Hrs: Kumo and Kijun retest was down yesterday. European session brought some selling again in stocks "with no news"... or maybe someone finally realised the fall in Chinese Export number. Who cares, price action seems to be weak, Slow Stoch turning down too.

Small short might be good for a 1840 tgt             at least (with stop above 1877). Then we'll see if the range holds or not.

Please check the left panel for the critical area call! The question is wether the market can hold until May and make the first ellipse come higher to overlap the second one, or the whole house of cards collapses sooner. There is clearly no trend now, daily ADX is super low. Actual key level is 1815 now, but market has been moving sideaway and so far seems nothing can really push it higher, and or lower. About the internal rotation and broad US equity mkt structure I have written before, you can check those in my previous equity index posts.

So my general bias remains bearish . Of course no one should exclude the chance that SP500             somehow starts to rally and goes well above 1900. But for now I don't see this chance as high enough.
2use
2 years ago
Adding this to the collection of projections. Recent run gives me a feeling of a headfake.
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sunny
2 years ago
Excellent call. 1815 held and we're near 1880 again!
Any new ideas?
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Kumowizard PRO sunny
2 years ago
Thx! Yes, it worked very well. You can also check my latest post on sp500, when I called attention tha the 1815 would likely hold. It did. Tbh stocks hould have been bought since then, as there were clear bullish reversal signals, but in general I am not able to hold bullish equity positions, at least not for very long time. Why? You can see my opinion about how QE distorted everything all ard the global financial mkts. I just feel more comfortable with shorts from time to time, and anyway, after such a lon rally in equities and with no real interest rates availabl, what is the alternative cost now for holding cash? Nothing!
Regarding new ideas you can check my latest posts if you have some time. Still running positions are AUDUSD short, and EURUSD short, plus a not yet performing GBPUSD lomg put option. But you can also see which positions were closed in profit or with loss.
Thx again for following, and hope you'll like my ideas and analyses in the future too!
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2use
2 years ago
Please update this :)
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