The way this small rally from 1910.4 appears to be tapering to a peak near the present level is giving me more bias toward viewing this correction from 1833.5 as a 4th wave triangle.
Specifically, if this small rally is wave "e" of the triangle completing itself, it is very near to 1947.9 which is the .382 Fib retracement of the decline from 2132.9 to 1833.5 (often, a telltale sign of a 4th wave retracing a 3rd). Note that wave "e" is where a triangular 4th wave ends. That level also coincides within a point or two of the .236 and .5 retracements of wave "a" and "c" of this triangle, respectively: the odd and even waves of a contracting triangle quite often have Fibonacci proportional relationships, so this is also significant. If this is a bearish triangle and wave "e" is ending, we should soon see a thrust downward toward the target area shown. That would be the 5th wave of this initial 5-wave sequence (i.e. a 1st wave), which would then be the setup for a partial retracement of the whole decline since 2137.1.
If the index goes above 1995.4 before a thrust downward as described, I will rescind the bearish triangle view. Likewise, if this small rally reaches above 1976.2, but remains below 1995.4, it may mean that the triangle wave "c" is more complex (would not surprise me) and the triangle thrust will need to be recalibrated.
Comments
AynCzubas
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Updated Triangle Wave Count
AynCzubas
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This wave, until now labeled as "e" has exceeded 1976.2, which was labeled as "c". Therefore, I now change the count to consider this wave as wave "c", with "d" and "e" still pending. If the index exceeds 1995.4, then I will need to rescind the view of the bearish triangle.
AynCzubas
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Wave "e" has since gone higher, but so far still remains below 1976.2.
AynCzubas
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It looks like wave "e" of the triangle topped out at 1962.7. It also looks like a very small impulsive wave has developed down to 1951.9 and is currently being retraced by a corrective wave. Unless this impulse is just a wave "a" of an ABC correction -- meaning wave "e" has still higher to go (doubtful, as that impulse appears complete), then I expect it is the first clearly countable segment of the 5th wave thrusting from the triangle.
AynCzubas
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AynCzubas
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AynCzubas
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Now expecting this "e" wave, which has developed as an impulse, to peak between 1963-1970, as its own 4th wave appears to have been a triangle which primed this last upward spike. . Except for the height of the "e" wave, all comments above still stand.