I get a lot of questions asking whether the latest S&P move is a correction wave (to its August declines) or whether August's move was the correction that the market was waiting for and we are heading to another wave that will conquer a new record high.
My answer to this question is simple - There were two major technical events that happened during August that, for me, signal that the markets may be shifting direction.
1. The close below the 200 days MA
2. The close below the 50 weeks MA
As long as $SPX will remains below 2040-2060 (which was my final target zone on my latest setup), I'll continue to consider $SPX's rally as correction move to August's crash.
The chart shows three different trading patterns I'm looking at as potential sell zones:
1. - Will complete near the 2000 handle (resistance)
2. - Will complete near 2020 and the 4H 200 line (resistance)
3. - The final and probably the strongest of all is inside the 2040-206 zone
The first pattern is a short term pattern that could lead to a small pullback move towards 1970, or even to 1950 again. Only if the price will close below 1950 I'll consider the option that it may close near 1900 again.
The last two patterns will be interesting if the price will rally and reach their PRZs before or after the FOMC meeting.
The obvious setup is to sell when the price reaches the PRZ, but there's also a good change that the price will remain below 2000 till Wednesday and will rally to complete one of last two patterns only following the announcement and the press conference if the Fed won't raise rate (as I expect) - That's BTW is the scenario for those who want to speculate on this possible scenario.
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