Yes - Your SP500 heavy red trend line is approximately Fibonacci 1.0 down from the Apr-Sep2021 maximum upper-bound line. Question : Do you think that the rate of financial asset inflation has just now bent down to a lower level, perhaps down to the ~Mar2016-Nov2018 rate? (although a small part of that is real economic growth, not just 0% long-term interest-driven (debt, consumer purchases of foreign goods, hype, etc).
The rate of financial asset inflation is certainly way down from Sep2020-Apr2021. The 83 year, 1926-2020 baseline SP500 financial (inflation + growth) was roughly 3%/year (see below - not really the same number as it's semi-log, but good enough for now), much of which was probably real growth until perhaps 1980-2000 (I didn't dig into that). SP500 1926-2020 semi-log trend = 10^(0.792392+2.89587*10^(-2)*(year - 1926.25)) price revolution* SP500 1872-1926 semi-log trend = 10^(0.784617+1.40925*10^(-4)*(year - 1871.08))) price equilibrium* *David Fischer 1996 "The Great Wave, Price revolutions and the rhythm of history"
The rate of financial asset inflation is certainly way down from Sep2020-Apr2021. The 83 year, 1926-2020 baseline SP500 financial (inflation + growth) was roughly 3%/year (see below - not really the same number as it's semi-log, but good enough for now), much of which was probably real growth until perhaps 1980-2000 (I didn't dig into that).
SP500 1926-2020 semi-log trend = 10^(0.792392+2.89587*10^(-2)*(year - 1926.25)) price revolution*
SP500 1872-1926 semi-log trend = 10^(0.784617+1.40925*10^(-4)*(year - 1871.08))) price equilibrium*
*David Fischer 1996 "The Great Wave, Price revolutions and the rhythm of history"