The crowd is impressed by the vertical strength. But below the surface, the balance of power is shifting: - Since 2013, the corrections were shallow and no more than 15days and the rally were longer and were making significant new highs. - Since August14, the rallies although vertical, are making marginal new highs and the correction in between now took 1 full month... - If the shift of energy from positive to negative is really taking place below the surface: 1) the current rally (super strong by all mean) may stop only after 23days (instead of 1month or more before) and the leg down could take 1 month again and be dramatic this time.
Cliff 1940. For this scenario to take place: sp500 needs to be below 2000 soon and after an intermediate rebound it could launch 9/13 days down vertical with exponential reaching: 1680
I am repeating myself on all these charts. Super dangerous to be long.
Risk reward: 7% up slowly (and slow is not regime right now) or 15% down on the first leg and probably more into 2015 to reach 23% down.
great post, thanks! any update on timing? this is infuriating but i think the downside is huge. finally seeing SKEW confirm too . . . a day or two? week?
YaKa
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The window for a local top starts really today because of wave considerations and could have been anything from last week into next week.
there is important pivot at 2000.. There will be correction that is for sure but the question is whether 2000 breaks or not which will make a huge difference to the next few weeks projections.
look4edge
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you seem to be experienced trader
anyway, the last monthly megabullish hammer is sth. not to be ignored and obvoiusly something has not been finished yet
probably have different ew count than you - 2000-2009 ABC(W), now sth. up from 2009 (mostly also corrective - X?), second upleg from 1074.77 needs to terminate, last w5 has reached 61.8% of w1 and thus can be over anytime - MOB line is at red cap tl (2035)
then W4 is due - tgt 1740/1697 (38.2%) to monthly ema 34, then W5 up again (if the last dip was not W4 already or part of it)
keep posting :)
btw. dax looks ugly, but is in correction very long to break down so sharp, and has tested big level 8500 already, volume last month was also very big - esp. 17.10 siemens