I saw this 5 wave move too... Will try the .618 for a long but would really prefer to see a 5th down to 2k. We are rejecting the 200W MA right now with upper wicks on the weekly and have a deathcross on the daily. You've overly optimistic
gvoommen
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Excellent analysis.
SaintJ13
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Top-drawer analysis and commentary .... thanks. Will check you eToro copy-Trader account. Some commentary on oil price and oil etf investing would always be welcome.... 300-500% over 2 years?
ugoiannuzzi
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Wondering if you ended up building out your position in Canopy Growth for the long haul?
lincolnendo
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With the very high employment, the huge corporate bond dept that unable to pay
would nt you expect at least 50% off the peak ? down to 1700
Not every 5 wave move is a part of a motive wave, it can be wave C of a flat correction just complete. You are over optimistic on indices. Market should also discount that billions/trillions of stimulus will be tax burden for the future recovery. Also business and insurance defaults and bankruptcies are coming very soon (not yet happened), listen to El-Erian - I doubt that real money wish to play that Russian roulette today. For big funds it is better be out of equity.
UnknownUnicorn266486
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With all due respect @Kupitman, a lot of what you're saying is hyperbole.
This is a supply-side shock, not a demand-side shock-like 2008. The fiscal stimulus causes M2 expansion, ultimately this leads to a weaker currency (USD) which also causes inflation. I think we can both agree that the Fed is not likely to adjust the base rate of 0% and therefore the real rate of return is expected to collapse. As long as inflation is rising at a faster pace than interest rates its the CREDITOR that takes the hit, not the debtor as real returns diminish.
The fed have extended their bond purchases to include high yield credit which began to ease tightness in the bond market last week. A client of mine owns an insurance business, that's the first area I looked to, he shared with me what is and is not covered throughout this CV-19 fiasco - very little is covered, insurance companies should get away relatively OK.
Here is a white paper from Charles Goodhart that gives great insight into like after CV-19