IllusionsCatcher
Short

Ranging Bear (replacing raging bull)

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
Hi guys. The raging bull is getting substituted by a ranging bear in my opinion. I'm seeing a drop into Friday. Please feel free to comment. Thank you.
Comment: My timing approach shows two high prob sell-offs: today (in about 3-4 hours) and this Friday. 60/40.
If the S&P 500 breaks out higher here instead, that could be a very strong move, though.
+2 Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
The interesting piece of information is that the S&P 500 closed yesterday (May 07) above this breakout level, which sophia715 pointed out, which seems to be around 2654. If today (May 08) is going toclose below this level that would be bearish though.


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@ChartArt, absolutely; the only reason I'm bearish is because SPY has been failing to break out for so long
+1 Reply
maki2000 IllusionsCatcher
@IllusionsCatcher, my thoughts exactly, lots of failed breakouts, YTD of SPX is down between -4% and -1% depending on the day, 200 DMA holding up for now but its been tested over and over, yet this ER season was supposed to fix everything, these are not a signs of strength IMHO.
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@maki2000, Honestly, I'd prefer not even to trade this range, as it's just too choppy. SPY stuck is at the same level for 7 weeks basically.
+1 Reply
maki2000 IllusionsCatcher
@IllusionsCatcher, agreed, this is not the time to play long on indices, with very few exceptions IMO, I have a position in TVIX, but its impressively unimpressive so far this week, was expecting more spikes instead of it breaking down to 6.60, but I intend on holding for another 5-10 days.

I'm aware that VIX is a very manipulated index (https://www.reuters.com/article/cboe-lawsuit-volatility/update-1-cboe-market-makers-targeted-in-vix-manipulation-lawsuit-idUSL1N1S42H3), yet it seem more reliable to bet on a rise in fear/expected price change than that everything will just blow over.
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