My bet: NFP 175 instead of 250 and market falls
I did my homework and I think it will go down.
The risk is follow through to max 2140. My risk seems to be your base scenario.
Market very volatile.. High energy in a small place.. there has been enough testing in the 1900 region and there is not enough space to move up vertically more than 2 days at the current speed. Solution: some stretching down.