FX:SPX500 S&P 500 index of US listed shares
The market has already calibrated mostly for the declining oil price. Energy sector not so big either in the S&P0.00% , accounting for 6,5% of the . indicates oversold on . Marked has also re calibrated after the first initial rate hike and upcoming hikes is expected. Dollar might stay flat and rate hikes prolonged to avoid drop in oil price, which will further increase earnings. Last years Q1 have been quite strong, especially in 2012 after 2011 down trend. i am expecting an optimistic view of 2016 by investors and move towards 2100 again.
historically, doesn't the spx lag behind the commodities corrective nature? ie 2008.2009 it had a significant sell down for 3 months with QE rescue announcement... i see another massive sell off to retest 1500-1600 range breakout - spx always retraces breakout levels to some degree-
I haven't checked, post an comparing chart if you want us to look at it:) Generally at least gold out of commodities tend to follow sharply the interest rate of the markets currency i.e. USD. So when interest rate goes up (or like 2015, when it is expected in the next months) XAU price goes down. This is basically because there is no or profit from rate on gold compared to an savings account with interest rate....so when interest rate increase investors move their investments over to USD to achieve interest pay off, and when it declines they move over to gold...which is fundamentally a safer invest than any currency.