As SP500 has been losing momentum in the last 6 months and seems to be reaching what could be the TOP (In time and price), it becomes increasingly relevant to take a step back a reevaluate extreme scenarios.
In any case what seems clear is that SP500 could be above 10,000 in the years 2030.
The question is whether SP500 is going to suffer a 50%+ dive in the next 2 to 4 years and if that correction will be slow/painful or will come as a fast shock (maybe the second then the first).
As Governments have already used all their easing ammunitions, if there is a problem, it may take longer to resolve.
This is all vague at this stage. The take away is that markets often work in trio and a third leg down of 50% is possible.
Of course, thinking of 50% down seems ridiculous when most managers currently wonder if SP500 will reach 2300 this year but it was the same in 2000 and 2007: nobody could foresee what was coming and everybody was looking up.
Note: in 2013 and 2014, many prominent analysts were forecasting large corrections... They are instinct now. The move is therefore more likely to occur.
We are here now:)
If we get there, the above projection is 30% right which would be already good given the magnitude spoken about...
1600 would induce a sharp rebound, it may be final or just a rebound... I am sure we would have plenty more information by then.
Clearly at this stage the news flow only justifies a 10/20% correction... to go lower would require the environment to have shifted and this is not before end of 2016 at the earliest and nobody knows for sure what the news will then be.