YaKa

SP500 - 17Y Winter Kondratieff Cycle May not be over

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
824 5 9

As SP500             has been losing momentum in the last 6 months and seems to be reaching what could be the TOP (In time and price), it becomes increasingly relevant to take a step back a reevaluate extreme scenarios.

In any case what seems clear is that SP500             could be above 10,000 in the years 2030.

The question is whether SP500             is going to suffer a 50%+ dive in the next 2 to 4 years and if that correction will be slow/painful or will come as a fast shock (maybe the second then the first).

As Governments have already used all their easing ammunitions, if there is a problem, it may take longer to resolve.

This is all vague at this stage. The take away is that markets often work in trio and a third leg down of 50% is possible.

Of course, thinking of 50% down seems ridiculous when most managers currently wonder if SP500             will reach 2300 this year but it was the same in 2000 and 2007: nobody could foresee what was coming and everybody was looking up.

Note: in 2013 and 2014, many prominent analysts were forecasting large corrections... They are instinct now. The move is therefore more likely to occur.
broken87
2 years ago
You sir are bold...but may be correct. I hope so...I am short!! Godspeed sir and thank you for the analysis.
Reply
broken87
2 years ago
One Question...how does dollar breakout play into all of this??? Do you think the trend will reverse on this too? Isn't dollar strength good for stocks? JW and TY
Reply
Time for the big correction? BTW thank you very much for the analysis.
Reply
Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
I think the 1600 is gonna provide some good support as it was the break from that 7 year range
Reply
YaKa PRO Justiceisfalse
2 years ago
Step by step..
We are here now:)
If we get there, the above projection is 30% right which would be already good given the magnitude spoken about...
1600 would induce a sharp rebound, it may be final or just a rebound... I am sure we would have plenty more information by then.

Clearly at this stage the news flow only justifies a 10/20% correction... to go lower would require the environment to have shifted and this is not before end of 2016 at the earliest and nobody knows for sure what the news will then be.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out