YaKa

SP500 - 17Y Winter Kondratieff Cycle May not be over

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
948 5 11

As SP500             has been losing momentum in the last 6 months and seems to be reaching what could be the TOP (In time and price), it becomes increasingly relevant to take a step back a reevaluate extreme scenarios.

In any case what seems clear is that SP500             could be above 10,000 in the years 2030.

The question is whether SP500             is going to suffer a 50%+ dive in the next 2 to 4 years and if that correction will be slow/painful or will come as a fast shock (maybe the second then the first).

As Governments have already used all their easing ammunitions, if there is a problem, it may take longer to resolve.

This is all vague at this stage. The take away is that markets often work in trio and a third leg down of 50% is possible.

Of course, thinking of 50% down seems ridiculous when most managers currently wonder if SP500             will reach 2300 this year but it was the same in 2000 and 2007: nobody could foresee what was coming and everybody was looking up.

Note: in 2013 and 2014, many prominent analysts were forecasting large corrections... They are instinct now. The move is therefore more likely to occur.
I think the 1600 is gonna provide some good support as it was the break from that 7 year range
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YaKa PRO Justiceisfalse
Step by step..
We are here now:)
If we get there, the above projection is 30% right which would be already good given the magnitude spoken about...
1600 would induce a sharp rebound, it may be final or just a rebound... I am sure we would have plenty more information by then.

Clearly at this stage the news flow only justifies a 10/20% correction... to go lower would require the environment to have shifted and this is not before end of 2016 at the earliest and nobody knows for sure what the news will then be.
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Time for the big correction? BTW thank you very much for the analysis.
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One Question...how does dollar breakout play into all of this??? Do you think the trend will reverse on this too? Isn't dollar strength good for stocks? JW and TY
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You sir are bold...but may be correct. I hope so...I am short!! Godspeed sir and thank you for the analysis.
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