IvanLabrie
Short

SPX500: Monthly downtrend triggered

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
8 months ago
The S&P500             index has fired a monthly downtrend signal yet again. This could be the start of a decline to 1728.30.
Since our upside risk is so minimal, a short trade would be a good idea here. Risk a rally above 2100 to be safe, and target 1728.30. Keep in mind the sideways pattern Tim West had forecasted in his yearly forecast chart. If you haven't seen it, it's a work of art. See related ideas.

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Cheers!

Ivan Labrie

Link to Tim West's chatroom: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#c8BzrhGRvXxGXWnJ
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.


Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance             on such information.
8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


Monitor this level on close today. A close below would be a good start. 209.54 SPY
8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


Anticipating a gap down open tomorrow.
8 months ago
Comment: Next step 2060, below that, it can crash to the target on chart.
8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
8 months ago
Trade closed manually
moneymaking
8 months ago
Nice entry level mate, all the best :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
8 months ago
Thanks, let's see how it goes.
+1 Reply
RRose
8 months ago
do you think it will go to 2120- 2134, first then down. it almost looks like takes 5 months of distribution, and down only for few weeks, people are not scared at all. what will bring it to 1700s. it has to be some bad event. also why bonds are going up everyday, do the bond holders know something, if possible can u post the link of yearly forecast
Reply
JohnKer PRO
8 months ago
Like your overall prediction, but 2096.20 has no special meaning in my opinon, there are other higher targets, even 2112ish (even 2134) and still we'll be in a bear market.
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IvanLabrie PRO JohnKer
8 months ago
It shouldn't really break higher.

snapshot


It's a sideways market, not a bear market (yet).
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JohnKer PRO IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Been trading for 25+ years. There have been lower highs and lower lows since May of 2015 - definition of a bear market. The most recent high was still below May 2015, an irregular B wave is all. Like your charting :) good luck trading,
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO JohnKer
8 months ago
I mean, it's mostly sideways, but you can still go long when it bottoms out. That was my main gripe with the term. The definition of trend etc, depends on your trading paradigms as you know. :)
Thanks for stopping by, see you at the lows.
Reply
JohnKer PRO IvanLabrie
8 months ago
just went short big time, options and futures, we'll see and always say a little prayer to St. Joseph! Good luck
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RRose IvanLabrie
8 months ago
hi do you still expect lows or the close invalidate the 2096 close
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IvanLabrie PRO RRose
8 months ago
Hi, still short. There might have been a slight distortion in price action due to fundamentals, and seasonality (end of quarter and Central Bankers trying to ease their way out of a market correction...)
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Don_Corleone PRO IvanLabrie
8 months ago
I am also short man and thinking to add to my short.Really think we are going to to see a move down which will allow us to earn some good pips.GL!
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IvanLabrie PRO Don_Corleone
8 months ago
I think it's better to not average losing trades. Add to winners, perhaps close half of losers when half way to the stop.
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Don_Corleone PRO IvanLabrie
8 months ago
I say-trade your plan.That is all that matters.Ones again thx for sharing and GL!
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IvanLabrie PRO Don_Corleone
8 months ago
Indeed, thanks! You too.
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szey
8 months ago
As today close at 2098.86, above your 2096 target, can you pls give an update of your thought? Thank you.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO szey
8 months ago
It depends on the platform. I'd watch the futures open next, and see how it evolves during the Asian session.
As long as we're below the 23rd's close, in the daily, it's still a fairly decent short trade.
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szey IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Thank you
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Steve364 szey
8 months ago
it has crossed 2096.20 what's the plan? will it still drop down?
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TF.
8 months ago
nice chart....
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IvanLabrie PRO TF.
8 months ago
What do the ... mean?

"Risk a rally above 2100 to be safe, and target 1728.30"

In case it's some kind of sarcasm.
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TF. IvanLabrie
8 months ago
no it´s not sarcasm lol... i like your chart... my target is around 1850... but i am loosing my hope... short still open... till 2140.

Good luck
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO TF.
8 months ago
Ah ok, no problem though. The '...' were strange in that context. My bad.
Good luck!
Reply
Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
Hi Ivan thanks for chart. Is your downtrend call on Spx still on?
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IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
Since we didn't break the 24th's open, I think we might still head down, but it'll be safer once below 2095.40, and specially safe as soon as price accelerates below the monthly mode at 2057.90.
Let's see how it opens, the action in metals and bonds make this rally suspicious.
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Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Thanks for the reply! I was going to sell my Vxx position if Spx closed over 2110 today. It got close.
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IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
Probably wise to hold it, although I'd rather not trade Vix directly.
Good luck next week!
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Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Thanks Ivan! Please keep posting your charts. good luck to you as well!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
Have a nice weekend, thanks for stopping by.
Reply
Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Hi Ivan, what did you make of today's action? Do you think the Spx short play is over? I still have today's close in my down trend channel but there was some bullish action today. Thanks
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IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
I'm still in the short. I think it's still viable overall, but I'm not holding my breath. NFP might bring more clues.
This is a good read: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-06/gundlach-when-deutsche-bank-goes-single-digits-people-will-start-panic
Reply
Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Hi Ivan, thanks for the link. I will take a read tonight. I think if spx is trading above 2109 tomorrow, it will be at the top of my down trend channel and will have to strongly consider bailing on my vxx position as I'm starting to have to deal with decay.... urgh... broke my own rule of holding it over night last week. will hate to take the pain but... I guess we pay for an education one way or the other!
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IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
It boils down to your trading strategy, as long as you have a proven edge and follow the position sizing strategies and the trade setup entry and exit rules, you're golden.
I don't trade volatility directly, I see it as an indicator (Vix) but wouldn't trade it since it doesn't obey any kind of technical pattern that would work on other instruments in my experience. (despite many people toss indicators or trendlines at it...)
Good luck!
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Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Ivan, good advice! thanks for the comments. good luck!
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Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Hi Ivan, sorry to be making this a daily stop of mine! But we had similar thoughts on the spx and I just wanted to see what your thoughts are today on the spx short/pull back. After the spx almost immediately retreated from the 2109.x ish level I have a bit more confidence that the downtrend is still intact. volatility spiked a bit today too. I guess I was just wondering your thoughts the matter. thanks!
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
Yes indeed, if you check the futures we also have a gap down. I'm holding shorts in Dow Jones using a CFD for the moment and a bearish options trade in SPY (bearish butterfly with September expiration).
Not shorting SPY directly yet.
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Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Thanks for the reply! Good luck on your positions. I think Friday morning will be all over the place with June jobs data. Let's see what happens.
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Fitzndahyouwz IvanLabrie
8 months ago
Hi Ivan, just to finish things up... Looks like the short play is over, but I just can't see smart investors buying at the current Spx levels with out a pull back....
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IvanLabrie PRO Fitzndahyouwz
8 months ago
Indeed, but I don't want to chase the market higher. I'm in a few positions and will focus on individual stocks for now.
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moneymaking
8 months ago
Gap down sounds pretty good. I also see FTSE 100 falling as well. The pain from the Brexit will slowly start to show up on the charts. Just got to stay patient :)
+1 Reply
f1l1per. PRO
8 months ago
below 2070 i would long it
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f1l1per. PRO f1l1per.
8 months ago
srr for two replys:

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO f1l1per.
8 months ago
I wouldn't try a long yet, better wait for price action around your level.
+1 Reply
Genghis
8 months ago
Useful analysis as always pal. Thanks
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Genghis
8 months ago
Welcome, let's see if it pans out as forecasted, we still have to break under 2060 and accelerate down.
Reply
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