I consider the 400 SMA (purple line on chart) the "trigger" moving average to go short.
Price has come back to test the 400 a few times now and I believe it's about time that price breaks down to test its 1st bollinger band and then square root of 2 bollinger band (about 1.41 standard deviations), once that is broken the volitility will spike and short gains will come in big bunches, very quickly, with price likely going down to test the 3rd and fourth standard deviation bands for the 400 SMA, like in the previous two bear markets (2000 and 2008).
I expect price to be mostly, if not entirely, contained within the pitchfork that's drawn on the chart, until this bear move is over; again, just like in the previous two bear markets. Major pivots should come in mostly at the various pitchfork levels.
The pitchfork helps both to get an idea for how long the move will take to complete and in providing nice short to mid term profit targets.
I expect at least a 32% gain from this level, but likely 40% or more.
Comments
JamesBrown
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Price is at a key level for this pitchfork. If price breaks down from here we have more confirmation that this pitchfork is still in play and the bear market still in the cards.