FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
2377 32 51
This is getting deadly serious...
S&P             tried to break the 2110 level in the last 1.5 year 12 times. And the 13th time it broke out.
I've warned you don't try to short the stock markets because it's not going to end well for the shorts.
All of you who is short in the stock market will get one more chance during the next 2 weeks to close the position and go to the sidelines or go long in the stock markets.
This is true for the Nasdaq, the Dow, the Dax             . S&P             is leading the system so I'm following this one mainly.
The S&P             this year will be running up to 2350-2400 or maybe more

The market is usually giving one more chance for those who are missing these kind of big breakouts. You will get one more chance to get out of your short position at 2110-2120. This is almost the hardest thing in this business. To realize that you are wrong. To close the wrong position. There is only one more harder thing: to make your bets on the opposite direction. In this case it would mean to close your shorts and go long immediately.
The question is : will you be able to do this and get closer to become a pro or you hold your shorts get stopped out in the fall and watch this rally from the sidelines flat broke.

So I'm waiting for the testback of the breakout next week. I don't suggest to short it because we might not get this testback.
Comment: I forgot to zoom out the picture.
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Comment: I have bad news for the bears . S&P is terribly strong.
All we will get is the tag of 10 EMA at 2145$.
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Totally agree on this one , and I think the likelihood of a retest of 2110 area is possible
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An experienced trader can do both, ideally with two accounts. A longer term account in which, in the current environment, you would have held long positions since the Brexit lows. And a trading account account with tight stops to take advantage of the easy shorts provided on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. As we speak, I'm flat in the longer term account as I think we have put in an interim high though we may reach for 2177. If it breaks above 2177 and pulls back, I'll go long again.
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Nightstar Quantum_Maryland_Capital
I would argue that there are no easy 'shorts' when you're betting against momentum as well as the prevailing trend. Most pros will ride the trend and reload on a pull-back. If, however, you're adamant about 'shorting' then the best time to do it is at the end of an intermediate cycle --- not during.
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My phrasing was a bit casual but I subscribe to a number of data feeds that allows me to actually "see" net buying and selling and will only short on red candles usually on the first retracement. I don't pioneer.
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If FED really hike the rate, what do you think what will happen with S&P500? S&P500 looks really bullish....
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It will stop the rally for 4-5 days. Could print a DCL or HCL. After that the rally continues because market will make the conclusion:
FED is able to make the rate hike because Economy is strong. If economy is strong we have to buy shares.
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mikeoakster chartwatchers
Where is the increase on volume?!...
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Been trading the e-mini closely since Dec15. Missed the Brexit bottom with one day. But had several long positions reaching their TP around 2110, entered around 2000-2020. Still long of course but around half the positions now after 2110. I guess a lot of investors are doing the same, unaware of how hi the market will go now. In my point of view, I think next obvious top is around 2200 over summer, perhaps 2300 before end of 2116. The FEDs would never start increasing the rent if they weren't 99% sure it was the right thing to do. There been some bumps on the road since then, but obviously they're correct. It just take a little more time to persuade the market...but we're about there now. Only sound thing in my opinion to do in this market is to go long, and buy more on dips.

Daily chart;
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60min chart, falling wedge, but seems almost finished correcting now;
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This is where we will see if its a false breakout, and fallback.. or a true run. There is a split opinion in TV
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Great Chart and now we are waiting 13,14,15 and then the Down trend
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For the downtrend you can wait years from now if we are holding the breakout this summer
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SPX 2224 ..YES you saw it here first.
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Thats what I was finding. Thanks :)
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I totally agree with your analysis. This is 3 year range-bound market that finally took a position up. Other then watching the Big Short too many times it doesn't make sense to me but be anything but bullish until November (depending on Trump horror show) or rate hikes which are hard to imagine until 2017 due to elections. Fwiw, Until the ATH is was much less optimistic, trade the market you have, not the one you want.
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agree. sp500 is still possibly up to 2017 mar
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Pre-market is going for 2170 again. Will market hours follow up or are they going to sell it?
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Please I need your advice. I am still holding ERY ETF (short ERX) , I wanted to short oil via these but since SPY500 is in the rally they arent copying crude oil like before anymore. Now I think that crude oil will go even lower but I am not sure if these ETF can return back to 15,9 USD so I can sell them wothout loss. So I dont know if to hold them and wait or rather sell them after EIA news this Wednesday. thank you for your advice :)
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
The maximum it could pop is 15.
Today it is up. I would get out ASAP. It's a loosing trade and will be for the next 3 years.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
And stop shorting oil shares. You can't win.
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
ok, thank you. I have set sell limit for 14.7 USD . And do you think that oil will go short after EIA stock news like last 2 weeks ? thanks
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Any chance SPY pulls back to 110-112 or that pullback is now gone?
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newatthis PRO newatthis
Meant 210-212
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andrej123456 newatthis
man, it look to me that there will be no pullback or just a very small probably not worth waiting , I am selling my shorts by this Wednesday.
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Hello CW
what do u /story/no-us-interest-rate-rise-until-2018-as-the-consumer-looks-weak-morgan-stanley-says-2016-07-18#
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Your last conclusion comes from SP500 staying long time in range?
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Nobody is buying this rally.
1) If funds were buying it, cash level would be lower. However, July cash level are now at 5.8%, up from 5.7% in June and the highest since Nov’01
2) Investor buying of protection against sharp decline in stock market at record high, something which would not be happening if the market was "normal"
3) This rally is volumeless! The breakout should have been on high volume!

Check out http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-19/bofa-finds-something-odd-sp-record-highs-traders-have-never-been-more-nervous
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Nothing's moved today (no S&P, no gold), except DXY and WTI. Many markets are just marking time until rate decision.
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What about Dax? What do you make of that going down to before coming up?
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Looks like SPX needs to take a breather. If divergence in RSI and MACD signs will play out.
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Hi Arpi,
Did you check the VIX ? every time it drops to below 12 the market drop at least a 100 point ... now it is 11.7 !
also the earning season ends soon ... there is a possibility of a hick soon
so what would be the stimulus for a rally ?
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Hi Arpi... am a latecomer on this trade... do you think, one can go long now? or is it late?? pl advise for novices like me? Rgds
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Looks like S&P 500 decided to correct. SPY broke that support line:
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