Most of the people always bet either Long or Short. I do the same, I try to be a trend follower. I have been thinking for a few days what could be a good strategy on SP500 now, and frankly speaking I can not decide. Once I look at it I view as rather bullish, next minute I have doubts about further gains. Why is it so? Maybe because we'll see some less trand trader friendly environment with a lot of false signals, as it can happen that this index won't do anything else but moving sideaway in a new range, within the daily Kumo.
Daily: MACD is bullish now, so is Slow Stoch. But the main indicator, Ichimoku is neutral to medium bearish still! Price is in the Kumo cloud, which is a consolidation zone. Trading ard Kijun Sen, which at moment acts rather as resistance for further bullish moves. Tenkan is below Kijun (both within Kumo) - this is medium bearish. Chikou Span below Px candles. If you look at Chikou peaks and bottoms, you can clearly see Price has reached the bottom of the resistance zone, which is 1950-1959.
4 Hrs: pretty much confirming those I wrote above. Price moved out of the Kumo, but reaching key resistance levels here. Ichimoku setup is neutral to slight bullish on this lower time frame, but ADX and the turning Slow Stoch is worrysome. Unless bulls do something really big here, Price will likely fall back towards 1920.
At this point it is very difficult to make any big directional bets. I am stil bearish biased for longer term, I just don't know when it will be a good time to re-build bearish positions again. Maybe we will see some annoying lower range trading for a while in 1918-1950?
p.s.: By the way, it is not the SP500 what I consider to be the most overvalued mkt. That is rather Nasdaq100, with the biotech mania included.
Daily: MACD is bullish now, so is Slow Stoch. But the main indicator, Ichimoku is neutral to medium bearish still! Price is in the Kumo cloud, which is a consolidation zone. Trading ard Kijun Sen, which at moment acts rather as resistance for further bullish moves. Tenkan is below Kijun (both within Kumo) - this is medium bearish. Chikou Span below Px candles. If you look at Chikou peaks and bottoms, you can clearly see Price has reached the bottom of the resistance zone, which is 1950-1959.
4 Hrs: pretty much confirming those I wrote above. Price moved out of the Kumo, but reaching key resistance levels here. Ichimoku setup is neutral to slight bullish on this lower time frame, but ADX and the turning Slow Stoch is worrysome. Unless bulls do something really big here, Price will likely fall back towards 1920.
At this point it is very difficult to make any big directional bets. I am stil bearish biased for longer term, I just don't know when it will be a good time to re-build bearish positions again. Maybe we will see some annoying lower range trading for a while in 1918-1950?
p.s.: By the way, it is not the SP500 what I consider to be the most overvalued mkt. That is rather Nasdaq100, with the biotech mania included.