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AndyM
Jun 30, 2015 9:56 AM

S&P impulsive downtrend begins, targets 1950, 1750 Short

S&P 500 index of US listed sharesFXCM

Description

I believe the first complete down-looking impulsive subwave is now in place, and we can see its internal structure and properly label the waves using MACD reading. The 3rd waves produce the strongest peaks on MACD and the 5th wave usually lags behind in momentum, delivering a weaker peak. This is then followed by a correction in wave 2 or 4 of a larger degree.

An impulse never happens alone, even if it's just a correctional A wave, there would need to be a B wave up and then a C wave down. However, I believe we are dealing with much more than just a correction - since all upward waves have been completed, we are going to see a larger impulsive decline, with waves 1-3-5 of larger degrees progressively forming.

I estimate that the next wave 5 of 1 larger degree will reach 1950, and another larger degree wave 5 will end at 1750. This will be the first major wave of the decline, followed by a correction to 1950-2000.

The only rule of thumb I use to estimate the length of those larger degree waves is to project a 2.618 extension of wave 1 measured from its top to the breakout of the previous trend. Very often it works well.
Comments
docwesley90
I dont think so, not enough euphoria in the market
CoinedByCrypto
We see the same :)
AndyM
haha, we'll ask the market if it shares our vision!
CoinedByCrypto
Yeah you right... but I see it as not being a cliffhanger anymore the fingers has slipped and the speed down will accelerate with brute force now that gravity has kicked in. See you down below ;)
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