S&P 500 Leading Diagonal on the Daily Chart (SPX Elliott Wave)

In my previous count I predicted that SPX will head higher in Wave 5 for targets around 2370 and 2500+, since then the movement has been as expected, as of now there are multiple probabilities that can play out.

Probability 1 : The Wave 1 of Wave 5 has formed an Expanding Leading Diagonal (Count in Yellow)

Probability 2 : The Wave 1 of Wave 5 completed around 2117 and now the Wave under progression is Wave 3 of Wave 3 of Wave 5 (Count in Red)

Probability 3 : The yellow count is actually an Ending Diagonal, least fitting probability.

Triggers :
1. If the current formation is a Leading Diagonal then we can expect a retracement upto the 2015 to 1990 mark.

2. If the formation is a 3rd of the 3rd ( Probability 2 ) then we should see a strong break of the upper trendline with good volume as 3rd of the 3rd are strong.

3. A very swift break below 1988 would be the 1st sign that the formation was an Ending Diagonal.

Which formation plays out will be apparent very soon, you can use the Triggers with lower time counts to take a trading decision.

By personal Bias is bullish for the long term and Bearish for short term, Probability 1.