The range is drifting up by 16pts per month.
I think there is a slight advantage to a continuation to 2040 but all markets are well supported from here and a penetration lower is not trivial apparently (as per yesterday rejection)...
Big picture: I think the rally may extend to 2150 on the 19th of June 2015 before a more significant correction.
NFP today will be the focus
I am still short to 2040 and would buy dax at 11,000 and bund at 150 (which we nearly touched yesterday).
Not very conclusive but trying short close to 2110 should give you opportunities to exit flat before the close tonight and could bring you lower if the second reading of the report suggests rates hikes are more likely.
The VXV/VIX ratio spiked to 1.30 from 1.10 today. anything over 1.24 is bearish for near term sell offs (7-14 days) .
On Dec 5th, SPY was 208. ON Dec 16th, SPY was 197.91. 11 days. VXV/VXX ratio high on Dec 5th 1.35
On March 2nd, VXV/VXX spiked to 1.33. SPY was 211.99 On March 6th, 207.50
On March 20th VXV/VXX spiked to 1.31. SPY was 211.27 by March 26, spy 204.12
Above is the link
smart money flow has been exiting stage RIGHT for several weeks now.
only ones bIg for the last several weeks are governments. Anyone see what is on Bank of Sweden’s balance sheet ?
Over $1billion in Apple stock and over 1mm shares of SPY.
I am loaded for Bear Country. I anticipate 204-206 by May 22nd.
22….. A master number.
Love your work Yaka. Thank you.
The Swiss National Bank had a rough quarter in Q1 as the decision to abandon the increasingly unsustainable EURCHF floor (an event which marked an implicit admission that central banks are not all-powerful after all) blew a $32 billion hole in the central bank’s euro reserves. That, however, wasn’t the most remarkable takeaway from the SNB’s quarterly report.
More interesting than the massive loss was the line item in the SNB’s balance sheet which shows that 18% of the bank’s assets are held in foreign stocks.
As we noted last week, that amounts to around $100 billion — 15% of Switzerland’s GDP — in equities. This prompted us to praise the bank for its sheer brazenness in owning up to its equity holdings in a world where all plunge-protection-providing central banks are buying stocks but in which no one dares to admit it.
Just what does the SNB hold in its $100 billion stock portfolio? Quite a lot, and more than one-third of its holdings are in US equities. More specifically, the bank owns some $37 billion worth of shares in 2,548 US-listed companies, up an impressive 40% Q/Q. Here are the top 20 holdings:
And here's a look at the Q/Q change (basically, they added to everything):
As you can see from the above, Apple is far and away the largest US position and indeed, the SNB bought some 3.4 million shares of the iPhone maker during the first three months of the year alone, while the value of the bank's stake nearly doubled.
We would be remiss if we failed to point out the hilarious irony inherent in the fact that the SNB, whose abandonment of the EURCHF floor has hit Swiss watchmakers by reducing export comeptitiveness, spent the last three months accumulating a massive stake in the maker of the Apple Watch, a product that many traditional Swiss manufacturers have derided as a fad that's unlikely to withstand the test of err.. time.
As for the SNB being one of the biggest buyers of AAPL, here is how one can explain it:
SNB buys AAPL stock and lowers interest rates to force yield-starved bond investors to give money to Apple, which uses the debt proceeds to buyback AAPL stock, which boosts the value of SNB's AAPL stock.
What i see right now is that the area below is really supporting and weekly close want to be high
what could happen though is a dive rebound end of week and another dive followed by rebound.
Any broken clock is right twice a day. I am joking but seriously dont expect this thing to be right too many times in a row.
16:25 $ 208.8568 501,217
After Hours Volume: After Hours High: After Hours Low:
16,820,852 $ 211.6759
(16:18:42 PM) $ 208.8566
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/after-hours#ixzz3Za4LHIEw