YaKa

SP500 - Mid Field - NFP this afternoon.

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
532 37 8
SPX             trading in the middle of its trading range .

The range is drifting up by 16pts per month.

I think there is a slight advantage to a continuation to 2040 but all markets are well supported from here and a penetration lower is not trivial apparently (as per yesterday rejection)...

Big picture: I think the rally may extend to 2150 on the 19th of June 2015 before a more significant correction.

NFP today will be the focus

Trading:
I am still short to 2040 and would buy dax             at 11,000 and bund             at 150 (which we nearly touched yesterday).
ok NFP - large rebound to 2110. The rest of the day is skewed down: only a few points higher but potentially it gives back all the gain to finish in shooting star.
Not very conclusive but trying short close to 2110 should give you opportunities to exit flat before the close tonight and could bring you lower if the second reading of the report suggests rates hikes are more likely.
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There is not much space left higher if there is a breakout here.
it is more reasonnable for the market to fall first to enable lateralisation and then climb with more space available to 2150 in june.
I talk my book of course:)
snapshot
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Now i'm getting worried, as you get more and more bullish :)

However, i fully agree about 2150 and then we might be in for a 10% correction in summer or in fall the latest.
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Cpt_Picard Cpt_Picard
Even though i think 2200-2250 is in the cards first.
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YaKa PRO Cpt_Picard
Post your own things man... your parasitic comments are annoying... your comments without being able to check what you said in the past is USELESS to anyone reading you on this post - thx
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Oh, sorry if i offended you, Mr. Serious.
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YaKa PRO Cpt_Picard
You dont - what you are doing is just useless - Post your own thing if you have something to say. and if it is good we will be thrilled to read you. Otherwise.. well just say nothing. thx
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Very well, I'll go find another host to suck the energy out of. :)
We had a good run though, Hugs and kisses. Bye
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YaKa PRO Cpt_Picard
thx. bye
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YaKa PRO Cpt_Picard
someone has to give you feedback isnt it? just so you know : not knowing you and just hearing you think spx goes to the sky adds zero value if i dont know your track record and how you articulate it. so take it constructively.. post your own thing if you really need to express yourself.. and also stop being personal or you ll attract this.
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Bradley Siderograph predicted a major market top at 5/10/15. The Bradley charts don’t care if it is a Sunday. 100/100 power declination. today is the day to take profits on longs. I expect March lows to be revisited over the next two weeks before the Middle turn back up on May 24th.

http://bradleysiderograph.com/2015-turn-dates-sp500/

The VXV/VIX ratio spiked to 1.30 from 1.10 today. anything over 1.24 is bearish for near term sell offs (7-14 days) .

On Dec 5th, SPY was 208. ON Dec 16th, SPY was 197.91. 11 days. VXV/VXX ratio high on Dec 5th 1.35

On March 2nd, VXV/VXX spiked to 1.33. SPY was 211.99 On March 6th, 207.50

On March 20th VXV/VXX spiked to 1.31. SPY was 211.27 by March 26, spy 204.12

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=VXV%2FVIN

Above is the link

smart money flow has been exiting stage RIGHT for several weeks now.

only ones bIg for the last several weeks are governments. Anyone see what is on Bank of Sweden’s balance sheet ?

Over $1billion in Apple stock and over 1mm shares of SPY.

I am loaded for Bear Country. I anticipate 204-206 by May 22nd.

22….. A master number.

Love your work Yaka. Thank you.

Scott
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
God hears you.
It is difficult to remain confident on shorts with a candle like today's one but that may why it is a good top. Conclusion monday night i guess..
Although it is capped today i have difficulties seeing falling on such a strong day.
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
do you have any link to the swedish balance sheet position. was not aware.
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See the link below from Zerohedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-07/guess-who-owns-11-billion-apple-stock

The Swiss National Bank had a rough quarter in Q1 as the decision to abandon the increasingly unsustainable EURCHF floor (an event which marked an implicit admission that central banks are not all-powerful after all) blew a $32 billion hole in the central bank’s euro reserves. That, however, wasn’t the most remarkable takeaway from the SNB’s quarterly report.

More interesting than the massive loss was the line item in the SNB’s balance sheet which shows that 18% of the bank’s assets are held in foreign stocks.



As we noted last week, that amounts to around $100 billion — 15% of Switzerland’s GDP — in equities. This prompted us to praise the bank for its sheer brazenness in owning up to its equity holdings in a world where all plunge-protection-providing central banks are buying stocks but in which no one dares to admit it.

Just what does the SNB hold in its $100 billion stock portfolio? Quite a lot, and more than one-third of its holdings are in US equities. More specifically, the bank owns some $37 billion worth of shares in 2,548 US-listed companies, up an impressive 40% Q/Q. Here are the top 20 holdings:



And here's a look at the Q/Q change (basically, they added to everything):



As you can see from the above, Apple is far and away the largest US position and indeed, the SNB bought some 3.4 million shares of the iPhone maker during the first three months of the year alone, while the value of the bank's stake nearly doubled.



We would be remiss if we failed to point out the hilarious irony inherent in the fact that the SNB, whose abandonment of the EURCHF floor has hit Swiss watchmakers by reducing export comeptitiveness, spent the last three months accumulating a massive stake in the maker of the Apple Watch, a product that many traditional Swiss manufacturers have derided as a fad that's unlikely to withstand the test of err.. time.

As for the SNB being one of the biggest buyers of AAPL, here is how one can explain it:

SNB buys AAPL stock and lowers interest rates to force yield-starved bond investors to give money to Apple, which uses the debt proceeds to buyback AAPL stock, which boosts the value of SNB's AAPL stock.
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
Scott, i really dont get the Bradley indicator. Maybe one day we jump on a skype and you tell me a bit how it works. Many people think i have a crystal ball when what i do on charts is pretty straight forward.. But this bradley thing... sounds really like black magic unless you tell me a bit how it works
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http://bradleysiderograph.com/ this link is the best starting point and explanation I can give you. I do have skype, but am still a beginning student when it comes to understanding the science behind the turn dates
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
ok:) you will be my bradley filter. Just tell me the dates you see as key.
I think it is really something to look at with precaution... just as confirmation if anything.

On my side i see:
11th of May- short
14th of May - long
19th of June - Short
20th of July - Long
Nov15 - Short
Mar16 - Long
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
if you are right, something like this then
snapshot
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2117 is giving resistance here, maybe back to 2100 before going up through 2117 again by the end of next week. I added some on the short side today due to violence of the move. MHO :)
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Would love to see an IWM chart YaKa if your willing, not to mention LNKD. i added both put positions to my stable today.
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
snapshot
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
linked in - I have absolutely no clue
too short a chart - too new a biz... great concept for sure= i use it a lot
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Scenario: maybe we get 3 sharp days down to 2040 followed by an equally sharp rebound thursday/friday to reach back to 2100 again. that would be crazy but it is only 4% after all (which the dax is already doing every 2days).
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the next bradley middle term date after this weekend is may23-24th. i think we may sell of for the next 10 days with bottom the week of the 22nd, then rebound. you should check out the success of the turn dates for 2014. amazing. i became a believer after and didn't benefit from the major swings last fall-winter
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
Let s see.
What i see right now is that the area below is really supporting and weekly close want to be high
what could happen though is a dive rebound end of week and another dive followed by rebound.
Any broken clock is right twice a day. I am joking but seriously dont expect this thing to be right too many times in a row.
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
if it is right about todays top, it is already very good:)
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may it be right!!! i didn't expect todays huge run up and had 1/2 my positions in before today's action. I added another 1/2 today. fully committed. a/hours spy is in the right direction. 50 cents off the intraday highs. turn dates are tricky. check out the bradley site and compare it to your extensive work. I would value your opinion. my twitter handle @scott_minnesota
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http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_36631347.gif?1431116394 check out the after market spy drop
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
thx scott
i remember spy did exactly that the opposite way in dec or nov and hit 2115 much earlier than the future itself ever did it.
i am not sure if these moves mean something or if they are just a reflection of how illiquid the etf can be close to closes.. What s your take?
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check out the after hours volume. over 16mm shares of spy traded

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/after-hours

16:25 $ 208.8568 501,217

After Hours Volume: After Hours High: After Hours Low:
16,820,852 $ 211.6759
(16:18:42 PM) $ 208.8566
(16:19:17 PM)


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/after-hours#ixzz3Za4LHIEw
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scott_minnesota scott_minnesota
the link shows 501,000 spy contracts traded at 3:17 cst after market closed at 208.56 massive selling a/hs dropped spy 40 cents in a few minutes
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scott_minnesota scott_minnesota
should say shares not contracts. considering syp never traded at 208.85 today. never lower than 211 during market hours, it appears a major seller showed up and accepted a $3 hair cut for liquidity. who knows how much more that seller liquidated during this session. this huge bull day on horrible job news two days after yellen said markets were overvalued, feels like a massive setup. "that's my inner conspiracy side showing"
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
Unless it creates many days like today outside of the range, for the moment it is a storm in a glass of water as the range 2120/2040 will probably be respected next week to.

One thing to note: in the last few weeks: all signals are false (bulls and bears ones).
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agreed. I was full short until the drop to 207 and liquidated 1/2 position and banked good money. reloaded the powder today. if we get another move to 207-208ish, I will likely unload 1/2 again and write spreads on the rest as my previous position had the puts I sold against long expire worthless. I like to do calendar spreads where I am long 2-4 weeks out and sell the spreads I sell against 1-2 weeks out.
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YaKa PRO scott_minnesota
you mean: you are short and sell puts against it. correct?
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i buy longer dated puts at or close to the money. may 29 211s purchased on Friday and will sell shorted dated puts in the recent support range. 207-208. if we get a bigger down draft mon-tues. i will sell 204-206s that expire 5.22. helps alleviate theta burn.
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