spx500 baking in the fomc rate hike and brexit dates

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
513 6 17
the language from last fomc meeting tells me rate hike, if it is going to be before the election in November, it will be June 15th. "They" will know how the brexit vote will go, the answer will be stay in the EU, of course, so hiking rates will be what is needed, and that will be it until after the elections. Which should all be just enough momentum down to bounce off yet another insurmountable support TL, sponsored and made possible by... corp buy backs and govt             buying of stocks. Money managers and individuals are just playing along. Apple             will have had just about enough and take a portion of the cash and buy back huge amounts of their stock to create a support zone . Mortgage rates lower than ever with negative lending rates now, and still re fi             and new home mortgages down 4% YOY. Savings rate are way up. That goal is dead, that cycle has ended, anyone who had good enough credit to borrow did, and lower rates wont help that exhausted market. They will have to start giving away cars or something to get people to borrow from here on in. Now if the US consumer doesn't start buying more "stuff", then what? Recessions folks, looming large. CM             bottom builder indicator signalling a whopper, but not too big a whopper maybe. Just larger than the previous two.
No more QE .. how long can it stay up here?
claydoctor QuantitativeExhaustion
They will try more and new QE of course, but the effects of it are EXHAUSTED. They have no real effect because everything they were designed to do, they have done. Same actions produce same result, which was weak at best. Good for stock prices, but not the real economy, like sugar, eventually it doesn't sustain. And now what? No one knows. In the absence of leadership, a vacuum gets filled with... ??? whatever the people like to hear.
+1 Reply
claydoctor claydoctor
My point is the traditional model is very morphed because of QE, and so something new will result, but what? That was my guess, see above, there's more to my speculation, but it is just that, pure spec.
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The discussion is NIRP

But another panic and QE can tried again to get markets up. It's always last resort.
Good one, I'm short many things currently, let's see how it goes.
+1 Reply
Excellent point!
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