I assume there wont be any sharp vertical move and I have a stop line starting at 2150 today and climbing 1pt per business day or 1% per month.
Scenarios:
1 vertical up: i dont believe and i would stop on the red line below (pain stop more than runaway stop)
2 pain lateral up to 2140 - very possible but limited to 3% up until March
3 correction down and then climax
Trading:
short 40% 2080 stop 2150 climbing 1pt per bd
short 40% 2130 (only if occurs without breaching speed limit, ie no early than Feb15)
If markets falls straight: move stop to 2080 as soon as 2030 and take profit around 1940.
If market drifts up to 2130, execute second tranche and TP half at 2110 and half 2030.
These are regimes where theta gets killed and where you need the ability to add a few percent higher/a few weeks later to be safe.
Crude Light is doing a triangle.. a big move is imminent.. i bet down... the mess may not be over on tht front...
A few days left before year end.. we will see if the market closes at the top or surprises by closing the gap at 2010..
6 days up so far.. could be 9, 13 or 20.. 9 good target.
Also, note we had some dovish extension from Yellen from the last meeting and a great GDP figure yesterday that did... NOTHING... so I am not sure here.. Unless Draghi comes very strong on his meeting in January and maybe that is what hte marekt is awaiting and that could explain why it cant correct...
as far as i want to remain bearish, i understand that the long term trend is still UP but i am bearish for the retracement to hit lower trend support
For price to go below 1700, say 1300-1400, i reckon the long term trend line support has to be broken first and then twice fail to break back, after that it is possible at 1300-1400
Please also note that that are two previous major resistances at 1500 which could probably turn into a support
For the moment we can't correct more than 10% or even 5% without creating massive pulls to TOP.
So I will trade the beginning of moves down...
There might be a last spike to 2150ish.. after that the idea is to remain short until 1700 trades....
Mind you: there is a last possibility of a crash of 30% or even 60% but moves down of 20% are historically very rare.
So rare that it is actually better to go neutral and wait for them to go long after the event than short them....
We can with rather good probability define 5% correction... less so 10% and even less 20%....
Here predicting 10% down to 1880 is already very ambitious
Currently we have excellent guiding metrics as the market reaches speed limits recurrently and offers areas of short (not necessarily easy but it is difficult to imagine going up vertical...
BUT
in 12 months, the log speed limit will have climbed to 2350 and it is unlikely that SP500 will be there... so the any short around 2100 in nov15 may be rewarding but will be risky... Unlike now where it seems less risky but does not payoff.
if the close is at the top of the year.. it leaves a rather bullish picture...
if the close is say at 2010 or so (just closing the gap).. it would leave a minor crack and i would not be surprised to close below that market in dec16.
The behaviour is the following markets are bullish most the time and most the time you are right... Big changes occur over 3 weeks...
The game is to avoid those 3 weeks when you buy the dips..
Fix Vix?
Ultimate ma?
this is a world of its own...
where can i find literature on the indicator.. from a visual point of view, it works, is there a strategy related to it?
ultimate ma = another moving average - i set it to a 5 period to 8 period
vix fix = a larry williams indicator that identifies bottoms quite well
here: what level do you reckon would trigger s a sell on your system?
vix fix.. will check this..
thx
the parabolic is stuck bullish with trigger at the bottom.. useless if to fall.
the 8h extracting the trend can turn bear rather quickly if there is a few 8hours bars down.
Let's see if the last 4 days of trading of the year bring the market 3% lower.
If not let's see how long/far the resilience takes It to. 2110 without breakout on the 15th of Jan.
ECB monetrary meeting 22nd of Jan15 - There is a risk nothing happens until that... or 3% down to close the gap and 3% back up for news release...