SP500 - Trading Game Plan for FX:SPX500 by YaKa

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I assume there wont be any sharp vertical move and I have a stop line starting at 2150 today and climbing 1pt per business day or 1% per month.

Scenarios:
1 vertical up: i dont believe and i would stop on the red line below (pain stop more than runaway stop)
2 pain lateral up to 2140 - very possible but limited to 3% up until March
3 correction down and then climax

Trading:
short 40% 2080 stop 2150 climbing 1pt per bd
short 40% 2130 (only if occurs without breaching speed limit, ie no early than Feb15)

If markets falls straight: move stop to 2080 as soon as 2030 and take profit around 1940.
If market drifts up to 2130, execute second tranche and TP half at 2110 and half 2030.

Comments

Still has an upside bias profile, until that changes, buy the dips might continue.

elp

Yes elpuerto.. very good chart. you could match the trendline with tops, they fit perfectly...
The behaviour is the following markets are bullish most the time and most the time you are right... Big changes occur over 3 weeks...
The game is to avoid those 3 weeks when you buy the dips..

YaKa

after 31 Dec close, please help to put in quarterly and yearly chart.. with bollinger band and 8ema

jangseohee

TY for the chart setup!

YaKa

Agree, shorting this market has hurt many traders. I started using Chris Moody's vix fix and ultimate ma (settings 5-8) When the fix vix paints two red bars and the ultimate ma paints red, I look for a hwb to short the spx. When the vix fix paints back to grey, it's back to buy the spx.

elp

ok. How is this CM thing working roughly?

YaKa

I use it on the daily time frame for trend direction, when a long signal is given, I use another system to get me into the trend. I use the measured move system by David Halsey on a 15 min time frame get into the trade. Current set up where price traded to its mm -23.6

New setup to go long on.

Note if the 61.8 breaks I would look to sell a hwb (half way back 50% fib) on signs of resistance. I use the vix fix painting red and the ultimate ma as addtional filters to short. I don't try to pick the top or bottom, just trade the middle.

elp

interesting approach.. would need to familiarise to adopt... to you have any literature on the tools?

elp

HWB?
Fix Vix?
Ultimate ma?
this is a world of its own...
where can i find literature on the indicator.. from a visual point of view, it works, is there a strategy related to it?

YaKa

hwb = half way back 50% fib
ultimate ma = another moving average - i set it to a 5 period to 8 period
vix fix = a larry williams indicator that identifies bottoms quite well