SP500 - Trading Game Plan

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index

I assume there wont be any sharp vertical move and I have a stop line starting at 2150 today and climbing 1pt per business day or 1% per month.

1 vertical up: i dont believe and i would stop on the red line below (pain stop more than runaway stop)
2 pain lateral up to 2140 - very possible but limited to 3% up until March
3 correction down and then climax

short 40% 2080 stop 2150 climbing 1pt per bd
short 40% 2130 (only if occurs without breaching speed limit, ie no early than Feb15)

If markets falls straight: move stop to 2080 as soon as 2030 and take profit around 1940.
If market drifts up to 2130, execute second tranche and TP half at 2110 and half 2030.