FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
561 38 4

I assume there wont be any sharp vertical move and I have a stop line starting at 2150 today and climbing 1pt per business day or 1% per month.

Scenarios:
1 vertical up: i dont believe and i would stop on the red line below (pain stop more than runaway stop)
2 pain lateral up to 2140 - very possible but limited to 3% up until March
3 correction down and then climax

Trading:
short 40% 2080 stop 2150 climbing 1pt per bd
short 40% 2130 (only if occurs without breaching speed limit, ie no early than Feb15)

If markets falls straight: move stop to 2080 as soon as 2030 and take profit around 1940.
If market drifts up to 2130, execute second tranche and TP half at 2110 and half 2030.
1 hour chart of Emini SPX shows a perfect uptrend resistance so far
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
Yes. The pb is that it could elect to remain resilient against that resistance for 30bd and fry shorts in a slow barbecue fashion... something that happened no earlier than May/July14 or earlier: nov05/jun06 and nov06/feb07....
These are regimes where theta gets killed and where you need the ability to add a few percent higher/a few weeks later to be safe.
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True
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Bull flags lifted by conveyor belt
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
Yes - exactly. I think this local line was too local and the perfect candidate for an excess.

Crude Light is doing a triangle.. a big move is imminent.. i bet down... the mess may not be over on tht front...

A few days left before year end.. we will see if the market closes at the top or surprises by closing the gap at 2010..

6 days up so far.. could be 9, 13 or 20.. 9 good target.

Also, note we had some dovish extension from Yellen from the last meeting and a great GDP figure yesterday that did... NOTHING... so I am not sure here.. Unless Draghi comes very strong on his meeting in January and maybe that is what hte marekt is awaiting and that could explain why it cant correct...

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I agree, there is no positive. My question is: why you do not see the market below the 1400.00 Technically we can expect 1300,00 and it will be technically justified, because the correction of 2100.00 will be 700 points (30%) What do you think?
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Romanyse Romanyse
Sorry below 1864.00 ...
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jangseohee Romanyse
When the dust settle (burst of this ATH hypes), SPX would have found support around 1700 which i will update after 31Dec on month chart for the first instance
as far as i want to remain bearish, i understand that the long term trend is still UP but i am bearish for the retracement to hit lower trend support

For price to go below 1700, say 1300-1400, i reckon the long term trend line support has to be broken first and then twice fail to break back, after that it is possible at 1300-1400

Please also note that that are two previous major resistances at 1500 which could probably turn into a support
+1 Reply
Romanyse jangseohee
I see, thanks for the reply. This is good moment that you are talking about. I'll look after him. The game has a plan)))
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YaKa PRO Romanyse
I think: Step by step...
For the moment we can't correct more than 10% or even 5% without creating massive pulls to TOP.
So I will trade the beginning of moves down...
There might be a last spike to 2150ish.. after that the idea is to remain short until 1700 trades....
Mind you: there is a last possibility of a crash of 30% or even 60% but moves down of 20% are historically very rare.
So rare that it is actually better to go neutral and wait for them to go long after the event than short them....
We can with rather good probability define 5% correction... less so 10% and even less 20%....
Here predicting 10% down to 1880 is already very ambitious
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Yacine is right, as far as we are bearish, i suppose we are only hunger for a major correction :-)
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Thank U. I understand you. This is reasonable.
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jangseohee Romanyse
snapshot
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jangseohee jangseohee
hope this pics illustrate my analysis
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The path to 1700 may take until 2016 to develop and that is so long that a lot of things can change..
snapshot
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true
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you are also using Log scale?
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
yes.. once the linear is broken.. you need to look at that.
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my speculation: on the way up to resistance for Head formation is the LS is completed
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Important note:
Currently we have excellent guiding metrics as the market reaches speed limits recurrently and offers areas of short (not necessarily easy but it is difficult to imagine going up vertical...

BUT

in 12 months, the log speed limit will have climbed to 2350 and it is unlikely that SP500 will be there... so the any short around 2100 in nov15 may be rewarding but will be risky... Unlike now where it seems less risky but does not payoff.
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The yearly close could help too...
if the close is at the top of the year.. it leaves a rather bullish picture...
if the close is say at 2010 or so (just closing the gap).. it would leave a minor crack and i would not be surprised to close below that market in dec16.
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Russell 2000 stretching everything it could give to touch the underside of 2009 uptrendline now
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Still has an upside bias profile, until that changes, buy the dips might continue.
snapshot
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Yes elpuerto.. very good chart. you could match the trendline with tops, they fit perfectly...
The behaviour is the following markets are bullish most the time and most the time you are right... Big changes occur over 3 weeks...
The game is to avoid those 3 weeks when you buy the dips..
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after 31 Dec close, please help to put in quarterly and yearly chart.. with bollinger band and 8ema
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elp jangseohee
TY for the chart setup!
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elp YaKa
Agree, shorting this market has hurt many traders. I started using Chris Moody's vix fix and ultimate ma (settings 5-8) When the fix vix paints two red bars and the ultimate ma paints red, I look for a hwb to short the spx. When the vix fix paints back to grey, it's back to buy the spx.
snapshot
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ok. How is this CM thing working roughly?
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elp YaKa
I use it on the daily time frame for trend direction, when a long signal is given, I use another system to get me into the trend. I use the measured move system by David Halsey on a 15 min time frame get into the trade. Current set up where price traded to its mm -23.6
snapshot
New setup to go long on.
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Note if the 61.8 breaks I would look to sell a hwb (half way back 50% fib) on signs of resistance. I use the vix fix painting red and the ultimate ma as addtional filters to short. I don't try to pick the top or bottom, just trade the middle.
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interesting approach.. would need to familiarise to adopt... to you have any literature on the tools?
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HWB?
Fix Vix?
Ultimate ma?
this is a world of its own...
where can i find literature on the indicator.. from a visual point of view, it works, is there a strategy related to it?
-1 Reply
elp YaKa
hwb = half way back 50% fib
ultimate ma = another moving average - i set it to a 5 period to 8 period
vix fix = a larry williams indicator that identifies bottoms quite well
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Ok. this is not in my tool box yet... I will follow you for a while see how it works...
here: what level do you reckon would trigger s a sell on your system?
vix fix.. will check this..
thx
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in current situation, what would be required? which level to trigger short?
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I have 2050 as monthly pivot...
the parabolic is stuck bullish with trigger at the bottom.. useless if to fall.
the 8h extracting the trend can turn bear rather quickly if there is a few 8hours bars down.
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elp YaKa
In the current situation, I am more of an observer until the holidays are over. Don't want to chase price at highs when price is near it's upper TL where price has found resistance.
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yes.. i am short light.. something i can hold if it wants to drag me up to 2110 in January... I believe there is surprising volatile moves... not necessary dramatic moves but something in breach of what we have seen in the last year..
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Everything is said.

Let's see if the last 4 days of trading of the year bring the market 3% lower.

If not let's see how long/far the resilience takes It to. 2110 without breakout on the 15th of Jan.

ECB monetrary meeting 22nd of Jan15 - There is a risk nothing happens until that... or 3% down to close the gap and 3% back up for news release...
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