I assume there wont be any sharp vertical move and I have a stop line starting at 2150 today and climbing 1pt per business day or 1% per month.
1 vertical up: i dont believe and i would stop on the red line below (pain stop more than runaway stop)
2 pain lateral up to 2140 - very possible but limited to 3% up until March
3 correction down and then climax
short 40% 2080 stop 2150 climbing 1pt per bd
short 40% 2130 (only if occurs without breaching speed limit, ie no early than Feb15)
If markets falls straight: move stop to 2080 as soon as 2030 and take profit around 1940.
If market drifts up to 2130, execute second tranche and TP half at 2110 and half 2030.
Let's see if the last 4 days of trading of the year bring the market 3% lower.
If not let's see how long/far the resilience takes It to. 2110 without breakout on the 15th of Jan.
ECB monetrary meeting 22nd of Jan15 - There is a risk nothing happens until that... or 3% down to close the gap and 3% back up for news release...