SP500 - Short term probably up again, but will stay sluggish
As you can see, SP500 started to underperform a lot this year compared to European indexes, especially against DAX.
I think this underperformance will be around, mainly due to strong USD. But as European indexes go not only parabolic, but also vettical bullish now, this can push SP500 higher as well.
Daily:
- Ichimoku picture turns to neutral from bullish: Chikou hits Price candles, weak Tenkan/Kijun cross. It can turn more bullish again above 2080 (in case of a bullish Price/Kijun cross)
- Price reached rising wedge support. It should turn up again from here, otherwise Kumo and horizontal support will be penetrated and there will be a danger to enter more bearish
- If MACD flattens out above zero level that means short term bearish bias decreases
- Heikin Ashi candles show hesitation at support level. Question is if haDelta/SMA3 can move back above zero?
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is less bearish now. Price could not make a lower low.
- last Heikin Ashi candle is green, haDelta/SMA3 keeps short term bullish divergence and is slowly going higher again. - Key levels are: 2060 and more importantly 2080.
So for few more days I think there is more chance to move sideaways, or gring higher. Above 2080 it will look more bullish. 2040 really needs to hold, or Bulls will suffer a lot.
For the longer time we have to focus on the rising wedge pattern, which at some point will finally break on the lower side. However even if that breaks sometimes, it will not necessarely mean SP500 will enter a quick bear mkt. It can still happen, that while ECB money printing will drive European Stocks higher and higher, US stocks will underperform and will stuck in a wider horizontal range later, so that the bullish trend will be over, and market will move sideaway on all higher time frames for months. It will be the exact opposite to what has happeed during last years, when SP500 was trending up, while European Indexes were edging higher, but were rather trading ina wide sideaway range.
It is all about where the money is being printed, and all about how strong the USD will be (basically how EURUSD behaves). 0,25 - 0,75 % rate hike from the FED (regardless when it happens) will not put that heavy pressure on US economy, but the monetary policy divergence between FED and the gambler ECB will keep EURUSD offered, and a strong USD will hit SP500 companies' earnings.
Conclusion: whenever you consider buying equities at supports, focus on Europe, and when you decide to go short on equities, short US mkts!
I think this underperformance will be around, mainly due to strong USD. But as European indexes go not only parabolic, but also vettical bullish now, this can push SP500 higher as well.
Daily:
- Ichimoku picture turns to neutral from bullish: Chikou hits Price candles, weak Tenkan/Kijun cross. It can turn more bullish again above 2080 (in case of a bullish Price/Kijun cross)
- Price reached rising wedge support. It should turn up again from here, otherwise Kumo and horizontal support will be penetrated and there will be a danger to enter more bearish
- If MACD flattens out above zero level that means short term bearish bias decreases
- Heikin Ashi candles show hesitation at support level. Question is if haDelta/SMA3 can move back above zero?
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is less bearish now. Price could not make a lower low.
- last Heikin Ashi candle is green, haDelta/SMA3 keeps short term bullish divergence and is slowly going higher again. - Key levels are: 2060 and more importantly 2080.
So for few more days I think there is more chance to move sideaways, or gring higher. Above 2080 it will look more bullish. 2040 really needs to hold, or Bulls will suffer a lot.
For the longer time we have to focus on the rising wedge pattern, which at some point will finally break on the lower side. However even if that breaks sometimes, it will not necessarely mean SP500 will enter a quick bear mkt. It can still happen, that while ECB money printing will drive European Stocks higher and higher, US stocks will underperform and will stuck in a wider horizontal range later, so that the bullish trend will be over, and market will move sideaway on all higher time frames for months. It will be the exact opposite to what has happeed during last years, when SP500 was trending up, while European Indexes were edging higher, but were rather trading ina wide sideaway range.
It is all about where the money is being printed, and all about how strong the USD will be (basically how EURUSD behaves). 0,25 - 0,75 % rate hike from the FED (regardless when it happens) will not put that heavy pressure on US economy, but the monetary policy divergence between FED and the gambler ECB will keep EURUSD offered, and a strong USD will hit SP500 companies' earnings.
Conclusion: whenever you consider buying equities at supports, focus on Europe, and when you decide to go short on equities, short US mkts!
