If a correction is in fact underway, and I'm not saying emphatically that it is yet, I'm looking for the 1895 level as a support that would likely hold. That would constitute an 18-20% correction. I'm still leaning toward a correction due, rather than a severe crash, as the "permabears" are continually calling for. I saw a guy post on here this weekend calling for a target significantly below 2009 levels. I mean, it's not impossible, but that's definitely black swan territory. One step at a time, let's not panic.
We are near the top of this LR channel going back to 2009, so definitely a good area to start shifting money into more protective assets, if you haven't already. I might be looking at the support levels here as a place to put some money back to work, if the market shows respect to those levels.
The thing about a crash, is nobody really knows when they are going to happen. But I feel if you have money in cash and try putting some to work after a decent retrace, you may not catch the bottom, but in the long run you should come out ahead. It's important to never be 100% invested, like many fund managers would have you be.
I'm posting the bias as neutral rather than short, because let's be honest, the trend is very much up still. The shorter term LR line (dotted) is outpacing the long term trend slope. Everybody wants to be a hero by calling the top, but that's not how money is really made.
We are near the top of this LR channel going back to 2009, so definitely a good area to start shifting money into more protective assets, if you haven't already. I might be looking at the support levels here as a place to put some money back to work, if the market shows respect to those levels.
The thing about a crash, is nobody really knows when they are going to happen. But I feel if you have money in cash and try putting some to work after a decent retrace, you may not catch the bottom, but in the long run you should come out ahead. It's important to never be 100% invested, like many fund managers would have you be.
I'm posting the bias as neutral rather than short, because let's be honest, the trend is very much up still. The shorter term LR line (dotted) is outpacing the long term trend slope. Everybody wants to be a hero by calling the top, but that's not how money is really made.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt