Kumowizard

Do you think this market is bullish?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
Nope. The short squeeze rally actually just pushed it back to neutral. One could say that "hey, but on the daily it made a bullish break!" - yes I see it did, but is this "bullish break" confirmed? Is this "bullish break" a start of a stable and persistent             move higher so resuming bull market, or is this Daily setup just a counter trend against the higher, weekly time frame?

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is not bullish , it is just neutral. This market has suffered a serious damage on the long term chart.
Price is back to the Kumo cloud, and trades above Kijun Sen and Senkou B (equilibrium level appr at 1985), but Tenkan (9 weeks average) still points down and is below Kijun. Also Chikou Span is still below past candles.
- Multiple resistances above price: spot Senkou A, horizontal resistance ard             2060+, and the previously broken uptrend line.
Theoretically the "W"endetta (W-shaped whatever... should we call it recovery, or bullish denial ???) move still has some room left, so Price can spik a bit more to the pattern's measured tgt             , which is again around 2060+, but this upswing action will likely start to lose its momentum in coming weeks.
- So far Heikin Ashi signal is bullish , but haDelta/SMA3 may deliver a warning signal by the end of this week that Bulls face some headwind.

In fact to call this market strategic bullish again, price should break back above 2100... well, everything is possible, never say never. However the probability of a turn down and a start of a real bear market is also relevant

Daily:
I already wrote about the details in the complex analysis before. To add few more thoughts:
- This Ichimoku setup is NOT confirmed Bullish , just because Price is above the Kumo! It is bullish biased, but might be only a counter trend (correction) against the weekly chart! For a sustainable bullish setup and to validate a bullish Kumo breakout, Price should move above 2085 - 2100 (previous highs), which would also deliver a Chikou cross above past candles.
- 2045-2060 may act as strong resistance ahead of Bulls. Looking at this cluster of possible downtrend line, uptrend channel top and horizontal supp/res line, I started to call this area as "Roof Top" resistance. I think Bulls may sniff into this loft, but I doubt they will find too much long term value there. The question is if and when market will sell this roof?
- To repeat: Heikin Ashi is still bullish , but smoothed haDelta below already shows serious negative divergence compared to price.

We are reaching a point where long term players should really start to think about their bullish equity exposure, and where Bears may start to prepare for action again.

I am slowly turning bearish and looking for more signs of exhaustion and bearish reversal. Be cautious, as we never know what market will really do!
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