mortdiggiddy
Long

Repeat $SPX $SPY $SPX500 January to April move

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
I call these types of patterns "S-Curves" and they are similar to AB = CD movements. The pattern usually ends how it began, with a violent bottom replicated as a violent top. The next FOMC is not until DEC 11, and DEC 12 is the next "promise" of when the FED will decide not to engage in any more overnight repo operations to the tune of $80-$120 Billion / day.
Nov 19
Comment: The next FOMC date for Q4 is December 11. We haven't even had the small correction that happens in the first half of November, just melting up and up. I suspect after this week the fire hose of buying will be turned on once again.

Nov 19
Comment: Overnight repo operations show that September was the first FED intervention since 2008.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONT...
Nov 19
Comment: Good article to understand why we are buying into all of this. The banks have run out of excess reserves WAY in advance of the FED expectations.... because they spent all the money in investments of securities and bonds! Go figure! This is a stealth bailout of banks again with no accountability.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/arti...
Nov 20
Comment: Broke the channel this morning + China news @ 12:45 EST today.
Nov 20
Comment: DJI support at trailing Daily ATR stop below.
Nov 21
Comment: With the selloff yesterday, seasonality is back on track. I suspect a move up Friday. Swooping down on the final days of this small seasonal timed pullback is indicative of a coming bullish move.
Nov 25
Comment: Watch for the backtest of the NOV 19 gap (and fill) before proceeding higher this morning
Dec 02
Comment: Tariff man is back. We filled the open weekend gap from NOV 22. Big support here if we can hold it.

Dec 02
Comment: Seems like a clear buy off Daily ATR stop, and Month CAM S3 + Month Pivot. The fact that this is all happening on these supports and pivots right at the beginning of the month tells me they may carry this back up again.
Dec 03
Comment: Tariff man strikes at the heart of the.... World! This rally was stopped dead Monday and we have now back tested the big breakout neckline.

I think we still have legs to go up the rest of the year
Dec 03
Comment: Inflows only just went positive as well. https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/statu...
Dec 06
Comment: NFP saves the day
Jan 02
Comment: REPO operations extended to last week of JAN. There is a point when you cannot deny that these things are lining up together on purpose. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domes...
Jan 02
Comment: 1.618 FIB extension is right inside the target zone. We may get a full dump back to the 200 DMA once the FED repo ends.

Jan 08
Comment: Back on track to targets.
Jan 09
Comment: Big level here on ES, took a lot of profit off the table again.
Jan 12
Comment: Eurodollar futures are already showing advanced signal of a top.
Jan 16
Comment: SPX500 hits 3314 target as DJI futures hit Month CAM R4. There is another smaller S-Curve at work here on DJI futures. I like curves within curves.

This is a high value put/short trade right here.
Jan 16
Comment: Curve within a curve. Right on Month CAM R4 and Week CAM R4. This doesn't happen often like this with the amount of overlap.
Jan 16
Comment: VIX Daily.
Jan 20
Comment: I believe we have temporarily peaked out. I may start another idea on the short trade after this.

If you look back about 15 years, every 2-3 years there seems to be a selloff triggered right around JAN 20 and lasts until FEB 5. We may repeat this again in 2020. I am hoping for a 5-10% pullback here.
Jan 20
Comment: Possible 5th of a 5th wave here for elliot wave fans (I am not a fan 😅 )
Jan 20
Comment: Closer look on H8 chart. 5th of 5th wave.
Jan 22
Comment: I took another look at SPX futures today, and there is a chance... a small chance... that we have been melting up in yet another S-Curve for the past 1-2 weeks. If that is true then the original upper target of 3400 is still in play.

Feb 24
Comment: We are getting a second chance at this trade
Feb 24
Comment: VIX full breakout
Feb 25
Comment: This was the correction we were always supposed to have but the PBOC interrupted it. S-Curves start and end violently.
Feb 25
Comment: Nearing final target of the breakout trendline backtest.
Feb 25
Comment: DJI, DAX, Russell 200 are all on the 200 DMAs. We may have one more washout day tomorrow before this ends.
Mar 09
Comment: Full Year CAM R3 to Year CAM S3 movement here. Huge level on Month S3 + Year S3. Does it hold or do margin clerks take us down to a -10% day?

The behavior of the markets right now is indicative of something inherently wrong with the system. Bond market is at collapse.

Mar 11
Comment: Final possible targets below for SPY at the FEB 2018 buy locations. This represents the 50% level for the entire year of 2018. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/R14dmJ...
Mar 11
Comment:
Mar 11
Comment: Getting the pitchfork bottom rail level I have been looking at for 2 years, and 200 WMA for DJI futures.
Mar 11
Comment: Russell 2000 futures break 2019 low. Wild.
Mar 11
Comment: Super important metric today that has only been touched in 4 selloffs in a decade. Before 2008 the last time was 2001.

Percent stocks above 200 Daily Moving Average. This is the final oversold metric and the big one.
Mar 12
Comment: 200 WMA tagged. Top to bottom is about 25%.
Mar 12
Comment: Full AB=CD correction for NQ
Mar 12
Comment: Mega FEB 2018 ES value area. This is the buy zone.
Mar 18
Comment: DJI hits megaphone, wipes out Trump presidency in 4 weeks.
Mar 18
Comment: SPX strikes DEC 2018 low. If they wanted to put in a bottom, this would be the place to do it. Not much hope though.
Mar 18
Comment: Little further for DAX to retest 2000 and 2007 highs.

Comments

Great thread. Thank you!
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Good stuff!
Reply
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