SPX500 Trade Plan if a key pivot is in

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
The chart shows a modified schiff pitchfork based on the Brexit panic drop and assumes a pivot is "in" from Friday's close.

That is a big "if" but basis for it is:
- Weekend headlines on Brexit are thin on immediate consequences,
- Google             analytics show loss of interest in "brexit", "nasdaq" and "S&P500." The later 2 don't happen when retail investors are worried about their 401Ks (see here
- Normal impulse / correction dynamics point to a retrace once immediate impulse is over. That may have been Friday.

Point is, if SPX500             opens higher and holds, the key Fibonaccis line up very well with a flat top kumo at P3 and the 50% fib (which was predictably hit intraday on Friday) and the higher 61.8% fib lines up very neatly with a key support / resistance line from the last 2 weeks of trading. The next fib conveniently coincides with 2100 - a nice number that many will judge as a "finish line" for this event to be over.

I am expecting the 2081 fib to be where the corrective move ends. We will see - many may get FOMO and move us to 2100.

Notice the price path never hits the medial line on this pitchfork . That is my seasonal pessimism.

Keep in mind the key pivot here (P4) is by no means confirmed - this is all based on an assumption. If we open / hold lower then this plan gets thrown out.

I will trade this with some new ITM             put sales on SPY             and selling some UVXY             puts that I already have in inventory when the key fibs are hit. I will also buy some OTM UVXY             calls when those fibs are hit. My hedge are puts on USO and some drillers that I bought last Thursday - if #brexit translates into immediate recession (I don't think it does) that impact will be signalled with a decisive Oil             top. Oil             has already looked toppish so it was a good hedge - notice that WTI lost a greater percentage than SPX500             on Friday.

I am also researching how to trade oil             volatility and may hit that topic in a separate post.
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