That is a big "if" but basis for it is:
- Weekend headlines on Brexit are thin on immediate consequences,
- Google analytics show loss of interest in "brexit", "nasdaq" and "S&P500." The later 2 don't happen when retail investors are worried about their 401Ks (see here https://twitter.com/codypd/status/746852193458786304)
- Normal impulse / correction dynamics point to a retrace once immediate impulse is over. That may have been Friday.
Point is, if SPX500 opens higher and holds, the key Fibonaccis line up very well with a flat top kumo at P3 and the 50% fib (which was predictably hit intraday on Friday) and the higher 61.8% fib lines up very neatly with a key support / resistance line from the last 2 weeks of trading. The next fib conveniently coincides with 2100 - a nice number that many will judge as a "finish line" for this event to be over.
I am expecting the 2081 fib to be where the corrective move ends. We will see - many may get FOMO and move us to 2100.
Notice the price path never hits the medial line on this . That is my pessimism.
Keep in mind the key here (P4) is by no means confirmed - this is all based on an assumption. If we open / hold lower then this plan gets thrown out.
I will trade this with some new ITM put sales on SPY and selling some UVXY puts that I already have in inventory when the key fibs are hit. I will also buy some OTM UVXY calls when those fibs are hit. My hedge are puts on and some drillers that I bought last Thursday - if #brexit translates into immediate recession (I don't think it does) that impact will be signalled with a decisive Oil top. Oil has already looked toppish so it was a good hedge - notice that WTI lost a greater percentage than SPX500 on Friday.
I am also researching how to trade oil and may hit that topic in a separate post.