YaKa
Short

SP500 - Fake breakout - bull trap

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
858 17 8
it can't break the continuous line...

A hug is maximum and expecting it is probably too much of a present for all the TA community.... So something disturbing in the middle is really what I would expect.
maximus71
2 years ago
I agree , the market need a correction ...at this level buyer are afraid of a downfall...at any time...
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elp
2 years ago
There is also a long time channel the sp500 has been trading in 1950-2015 logaritmic chart. Price is currently at it's center channel trendline which has been support and resistance in the past. In 1987 price broke it as resistance, yet it couldn't hold it as support and resulted in the crash of 1987. In the 90's price just powered through it and a huge rally started as a result. I agree, big resistance here. If I am wrong i must be not seeing something everyone else is with the current bull market.
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elp elp
2 years ago
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elp elp
2 years ago
Short term the rate of change quaterly, monthly and two week is all pointing up atm. The profile is not similar to last October and in fact is the exact opposite. The the ROC rolls over there will be chances to enter the short.
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
yes. thx
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technically I agree it is in need of correction badly. I like to see the moving averages pointing down showing the commitment of sellers though. From a fundamental stand point the jar will come from a central bank which has not happened yet. Yellen testify s before the Senate in the next two weeks so we may see something then. For now institutions are going to park their money in dividend stocks with good earnings imho
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jangseohee
2 years ago
i really hate to see SPX shoot to 2592!!
But who knows
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jangseohee
2 years ago
is the current rising wedge in Nasdaq Composite bullish/bearish?


NASX, rising wedge to 3000 or 6000?
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IanLip jangseohee
2 years ago
this is what I see, late 15 or in 16
SPX Weekly forecast for a possible correction...
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maximus71
2 years ago
Now we see all the same for us indexes....the question at 1 million is when...?
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jangseohee maximus71
2 years ago
you can wait for follow thru.. if you want more confirmation
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rmwallner
2 years ago
It can't? That type of mentality is a recipe for disaster. The market can do whatever it wants.
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jangseohee rmwallner
2 years ago
which is why i never wait and often jump the gun abit early :-)
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YaKa PRO rmwallner
2 years ago
everything is possible in the market....
so "can't" has to be put in the market context.
sometimes you have strong assumptions...
I TELL YOU: this assumption has been right for a while now and I STRONGLY BELIEVE THE LINE WILL NEVER BE BROKEN OVERALL (meaning staying below 1% above in closes).
the lines climb 1% per month compounded and will be at circa 10,000 in 2030... 12% coupounded is a very big progress over time...
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theyield
2 years ago
how many times have you been wrong?
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rmwallner theyield
2 years ago
Plenty of times. The key is to being right more often than wrong.
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YaKa PRO
2 years ago
on swings of 5/20% i have been right often since July09.
i have been strategically wrong in april13 and october13.
I have been tactically wrong on oct14 when i called a crash which did not materialise when SP500 broke 2000 on the japanese qe...

NOTE: since June last year there has been only 7% upside... the market is constrained whatever impression it gives within rallies.
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