The S&P appears to be in the middle of a neutral triangle correction that began in 2018. This is very similar to my BTC analysis. There's a VERY HIGH chance this count is correct for several reasons, including that this is the closest to the middle of a correction compared to all the other possibilities and it violates the least amount of rules.
This likely means the stock market will remain bearish until around the end of the year. By then we should be forming a long-term bottom and will begin a slow climb up in 2021 (wave-d) followed by a higher low in 2022 (wave-e). After 2022, it's likely the S&P and most assets including cryptocurrency begin one of the strongest, most consistent bull runs in history! This will be supported by weakening fiat currency as central banks turn money printing on overdrive to pull us out of this recession.
On a fundamental basis, the liquidity crisis, oil crisis, and pandemic have caused major negative pressure on asset prices and on individuals who are in dire need of dollars to keep themselves afloat. This could last for several months before governments are able to inject enough liquidity into the market for us to see a recovery. After the pandemic has subsided a lot of pressure will be taken off of the market and demand for oil will begin to rise again.
In the meantime, over the rest of this year we're likely to see significantly lower asset prices across the board. Until this crash bottoms out cash is king and short-term shorts will likely be the best way to make income during this extreme volatility. My target for the S&P is around 1800 by the end of the year.
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As I said in the comments below, Wave-B is still underway and now it seems like we may not see a wave-C down until Q4 of this year. Wave-B is currently forming a diametric and should continue to move upwards for the next 3 months.
When we do get a wave-C down, It's likely that it is significantly larger than the wave-A we had in Q1. That almost means that we will see some major stimulus being passed, and the US will move closer towards permanent UBI.
“On a fundamental basis, the liquidity crisis, oil crisis, and pandemic have caused major negative pressure on asset prices and on individuals who are in dire need of dollars to keep themselves afloat. This could last for several months before governments are able to inject enough liquidity into the market for us to see a recovery.”
@Intuit hi, man. i have just reread what you wrote a couple weeks ago. at that moment that sounded sober. but now i see that there is no liquidity crisis: USA government give money to everyone: directly to ppl, buy all kinds of treasuries and bonds and so on. thanks they don’t buy stocks directly (or do already?)
could you be so kind to make a new ADJUSTED review of current situations in US society, global/US economy, us rising stock markets?
btc now follow s&p((( so where s&p there btc( no need to analyze separately.
Intuit
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@kuzamano, The US government hasn't given enough money away yet, and the stimulus is probably too small and slow to immediately remove all of the deflationary pressures. Like I said, it will take some time before the effects of the stimulus fully take hold, and they might need to pass another stimulus, especially if oil keeps dropping after the new 10% cut in production and the oil companies need to be bailed out.
I'm not sure when this b-wave is going to end but it will end eventually and we should make a new low after that.
@Intuit hi, man. i have just reread what you wrote a couple weeks ago. at that moment that sounded sober. but now i see that there is no liquidity crisis: USA government give money to everyone: directly to ppl, buy all kinds of treasuries and bonds and so on. thanks they don’t buy stocks directly (or do already?)
could you be so kind to make a new ADJUSTED review of current situations in US society, global/US economy, us rising stock markets?
btc now follow s&p((( so where s&p there btc( no need to analyze separately.