Loii
Short

NEXT MONDAY should be the beginning of another market correction

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
1351 16 24
NEXT MONDAY should be the beginning of another market correction. This might take a whole week to unfold.
Target is $1800-1815. Estimated top: 2020-2030
1. top of wedge
2. should bounce off 200 day MA
3. RSI over bought
Comment: i use a period of 10 days on RSI and its 75. this 14 day one isnt over bought.
Comment: 4. Bearish Divergence on the RSI and previous tops.
Comment: target can be as low as 1730-1760
Comment: UPDATE: WAIT for a CLOSED bearish H4 candle on Monday before shorting. and use tight sl in case the top is little higher. i expect top can be as high as 2038!
Comment: I updated my trading plan, its the same but this plan caters for some range markets first. this range is not needed as 2008 crash 3rd leg down did not range. But the general idea is we're near another top. Hard to say exactly where. My nest estimate is 2030-2050.
ANOTHER SCENARIO FOR MARKET CORRECTION
Comment: *New Estimate
Comment: Potential double top? if u guys going to trade this, sl above 2024 should be good. I still favoring another leg up but this could very well be the top for the month.
Comment: 2050 seems likely and the new top. before any potential drop. will consider shorting there.
hhmmmm... dont konw
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SPX is to continue going up. Smart money is telling you its going up. Only retail traders are shorting this and losing
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Loii trickx
shorting with a tight sl will be the best risk reward ever. i dont see that was a losing trading. i would buy at 1800 not 2020.
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Loii trickx
i would wait for a bearish candle first perhaps on h1 or h4 to enter.
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Loii trickx
one retaiil daytrade in japan made 34 million shorting a similar top in aug 2015. i guess he wasnt one of them 'smart' money
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okay, thanks for the reply. So your basing your trade off something that happened in August 2015 with the Japanese index, doesn't sound like a good reason, but thanks for clarifying this. I just wanted to see if I missed any actual facts.
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trickx trickx
Thanks again
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"Smart money"; people throw that phrase around like they know what they're talking about. Please back it up with some facts. Institutional investors/ private money has been exiting this market all year. The only cash inflows are from retail & buybacks. Here are some BOAML charts from a few days ago http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-09/smart-money-quietly-getting-out-dodge-sells-sixth-straight-week-buybacks-soar. There is more info out there in this regard also, Jeff Gundlach at DoubeLline Capital's recent webcast for example. Basically, what I'm trying to say is you can't just say "smart money" is doing something when you have absolutely no basis for saying this, it might make you sound smart, but it won't make you any money. There is much more downside than upside in this market. Going long on a non intra-day level is not smart in my opinion, there may be gains, yes, but is the risk really worth it? You may have a solid basis for being long, but please don't pretend that you're doing what the "smart money" is doing when really you're just using a phrase to make it look like you know what you're talking about.
+1 Reply
trickx Sober_Colm
Thanks for your comment, please keep shorting.
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Trickx, sounds like you're frustrated/angry/have something to prove.
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