ChartArt
Short

Negative Bank and Oil news surprises will drive Wall Street down

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
612 3 17
7 months ago
Everyone is getting so excited, while my indicators are turning down. Good opportunity to short the happiness.

Short entry: 2074-2086
Stop loss: 2095
1. Target: 2033
2. Target: 2015
3. Target: 1915

First negative news today:

Crude Extends Losses After Bigger Than Expected Inventory Build Trumps Production Slowdown
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-13/crude-extends-losses-after-bigger-expected-inventory-build-trumps-production-slowdow

Oil falls as Saudi oil             minister plays down prospects for output cuts
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-falls-as-saudi-oil-minister-plays-down-prospects-for-output-cuts-395172

Peter Thiel Says Everything Is Overvalued: "Public Equities , Houses, Government Bonds"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-13/peter-thiel-says-everything-overvalued-public-equities-houses-government-bonds


P.S. The blue, gray and green lines are monthly and yearly pivot points

P.P.S. Indicator example is the full stochastic oscillator with the settings from http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stochastic_oscillator_fast_slow_and_full
7 months ago
Comment: The S&P 500 rallied beyond my stop loss recommendation of 2095, but after the failed oil supply cut talks in Doha I remain bearish on the S&P 500, even after it broke the 2100 barrier

This week could be the peak as the oil story starts to get bearish again:


"Wall St. flat as strong earnings counter fall in oil"
http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-set-for-higher-open-as-earnings-lift-sentiment-396704

"U.S. stock indexes were little changed on Wednesday April 20, 2016 as encouraging earnings reports offset oil prices sliding on renewed concerns about global oversupply.
Crude fell about 2 percent after Kuwaiti oil workers called off a strike that drove up prices and helped the S&P 500 breach 2,100 on Tuesday, about 30 points shy of its record high.

(...) Nadia Lovell, U.S. Equity Specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank expects the market to edge up on Wednesday, but cautioned that investors remained wary. First-quarter earnings at S&P 500 companies are expected to have fallen 7.6 percent on average and revenues are seen dipping 1.3 percent, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S."
7 months ago
Comment: Forgot to add this part of news:

"Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,369 to 1,249. On the Nasdaq, 1,187 issues fell and 1,001 rose."

- Wall St. flat as strong earnings counter fall in oil (Apr 20, 2016 09:55AM ET)
http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-set-for-higher-open-as-earnings-lift-sentiment-396704
7 months ago
Comment: Update 23 days later:

snapshot


The S&P 500 has started the decline I had envisioned. Question is if the downtrend accelerates in the next two weeks or if it first reverses with a bounce - as I predicted eight days later here:

Outrageously fatally complacency
ChartArt
7 months ago
There are lot of news coming up which can have negative surprises:

Fed beige book, Bank of America earnings, China GDP data, Bank of England decision, Citi earnings, IMF & World bank meetings, Morgan Stanley earnings, Goldman Sachs earnings

... all coming up in the next days in April.
Reply
Qiuness
7 months ago
nice! I got 2090 as entry!
Reply
If oil keeps raising, can this improve companies earning because USD is cheaper?
Reply
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