Long Term Outlook is Bleak For S&P 500

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
After reacting to the 1.5 fibs extension from the 1995 to 2000 bump and run pattern a few months back, putting in the current all time high, price is set to retrace and test some major levels.

The RSI is also now in "give back" mode, and it could be set move all the way down to oversold levels, like the 2000 and 2008 bear markets.
The 0.272 fibs retracement level from the 2010 bump and run (to current all time high) is the lowest I'd expect this bear market to hit.

The downtrend line, drawn from the daily highs, coincidentally converges with the uptrend (bump and run) line right at that level, making for strong confluence there. Price may dip below that level a bit if it were to reach that far down, but I doubt that it would go far below or stay there for long. Rather, it would likely happen similarly to the 2008 temporary dip below the B&R trend line, acting like a slingshot to price for another bump.

Don't ignore the importance of the pitchfork, either. It's levels could come into play on future pivot points. For instance, prices may be stopped short of hitting my target (at around a 0.5 retracement from the last bump and run in 2010 to current ATH) by the lower 0.5 pitchfork level (lower dotted line within the pitchfork).
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