QuantumLogicTrading

Fed/Brexit - Risk on vs Risk-off assets, convergence?? :S

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
somethings not right - All time low volume too, JPY booming, Bonds rallying - low liquidity is artificially driving the market up???

The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009
this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets

in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD             2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds

today we only see 1. Low gold             .. missing the other two.

This market "confusion" is likely caused by the uncertainty regarding the Fed hike cycle and possible Brexit risks spilling over - Low volume shows people do not want to hold risk - be careful with longs here
rodrickhan42
6 months ago
OR, bonds will tank soon. I am not sure the yen really matters, especially with the USD as high as it is. I would not draw this correlation as a bull necessity. It feels like this market will be a raging bull with the short squeeze on like 2013, very soon. However, it's either way at this point.
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QuantumLogicTrading rodrickhan42
6 months ago
errr yes bonds could tank BUT i think it more likely will be stocks 1. because VIX/ vol indexes are at yearly lows, thus a turn around is more likely - higher vols usually mean lower stocks and higher risk off.

Also USDJPY is normally about 80% negatively correlated with the spx.. the relationship is in positive territory now, and this is almost cyclical, but the negative corr will likely come back again either through falling market or falling yen - i think it willl be falling market at risks like the FED/Brexit are giving JPY strong demand (there no other reason to explain why jpy is doing so well, it should be at 130 otherwise given their easing vs $ fed and their inability to control their econs inflation)
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QuantumLogicTrading rodrickhan42
6 months ago
CYCLICAL SPX vs JPY correlation - what it means (SHORT SPX)


this is my arguement for long risk-off and short risk atm.
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