Fed/Brexit - Risk on vs Risk-off assets, convergence?? :S
somethings not right - All time low volume too, JPY booming, Bonds rallying - low liquidity is artificially driving the market up???
The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009
this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets
in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD 2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds
today we only see 1. Low gold .. missing the other two.
This market "confusion" is likely caused by the uncertainty regarding the Fed hike cycle and possible Brexit risks spilling over - Low volume shows people do not want to hold risk - be careful with longs here
The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009
this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets
in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD 2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds
today we only see 1. Low gold .. missing the other two.
This market "confusion" is likely caused by the uncertainty regarding the Fed hike cycle and possible Brexit risks spilling over - Low volume shows people do not want to hold risk - be careful with longs here
Also USDJPY is normally about 80% negatively correlated with the spx.. the relationship is in positive territory now, and this is almost cyclical, but the negative corr will likely come back again either through falling market or falling yen - i think it willl be falling market at risks like the FED/Brexit are giving JPY strong demand (there no other reason to explain why jpy is doing so well, it should be at 130 otherwise given their easing vs $ fed and their inability to control their econs inflation)
this is my arguement for long risk-off and short risk atm.