I'm struck by the dull feeling we are moving much lower than that.
I think long-term S&P 500 might retrace all the way down to 2100 in three descending sub-waves.
UnknownUnicorn266486
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@ReallyMe, Im always open to any outcome. If I have learned anything its that the markets will discipline those who believe they are correct. From a probabilistic view I do think there is still further upside to be had but again, I am open to the idea of a more bearish outcome.
ReallyMe
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@ROB.Reynolds, Yeah, I agree. The reason why I say so is this: In my opinion we are in the corrective Wave 2 of a Supercycle.
How deep will it go? Well, last time Wave 2 retraced from 0.382 to 0.236 (Nov1980 - Jun1982).
So if my assumption is correct and we are in Wave 2 this time as well, then we should go down from 0.382 (2914) to 0.236 (2100).
You also might want to check my recent idea for a Long-Term S&P 500 outlook (bull run until 2036 etc)
UnknownUnicorn266486
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@ReallyMe, Oh wow that's a HUGE call! I really don't have any real perspective over that kind of time horizon!
It certainly wouldn't surprise me if it materialized with all the uber bearishness out there!
kll
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Good unbiased analysis.You r highly likely to be on the dot this time.Good you r Always look at the upside and the downside
Much agreed. Always enjoy your commentary. Thanks. I may look to short AMD -- that chart is very bearish at the moment.
I'm actually a bit surprised the markets made it this far this fast, suggest to me that the plunge will be similar.
UnknownUnicorn266486
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Cheers @Akhokhar86, you could be right! I never like to count my winnings before the fact! Lets see where we are in a few weeks.
VisionCodeX
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@ROB.Reynolds, Yup. Quick take -- BA? If the market corrects, I think this name will fall pretty hard + it's overextended and rolling over. Though, AMD will likely fall harder. Curious how you see it.
I think long-term S&P 500 might retrace all the way down to 2100 in three descending sub-waves.