QuantitativeExhaustion
Short

US Equity Markets Artificial Lift

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
1541 54 34
SKEW/VIX Indicator - OIL             Volatility OVX            

SKEW/VIX Index compare, is a new indicator that I built here on TradingView (you can read details how it was constructed in the related link below). When combining SKEW with VIX             , we can see significant market tops/bottoms and displacement/divergence. As you can see in the chart, S&P             has been in a tight upward channel since October, 2011. SKEW/VIX and Oil             also marked a significant low in October, 2011. SKEW/VIX remained in upward trend from the low, and set many more highs until June 30 2014. It was in June, where Oil             started it's panic selling, and eventually breaking the support stronghold held since the October 2011 low. From June 30, 2014 SKEW/VIX peak until now, both oil             volatility index OVX             and S&P             volatility index VIX             have risen significantly. With SKEW/VIX trending down toward a lower sub 5 level, I would call our S&P             run since June 30th, an artificial lift. Eventually we will see a major correction.


VIX             has been quietly trending upward. On this chart notice the higher lows.


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Oil Volatility OVX             has also increased volatility in the S&P             and follows VIX             closely.

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The fed controle the game keep artificial ,,,market lift VXX I s keep artificial low by the fed
Reply
Vix will be replace soon to 16 dollar after juni or July by the fed you will see it ... Than fed rate hike will come one month later maybe August or September or October
+1 Reply
You are correct stock market is in controle from the fed artificial lift by the centrale banks something is going wrong manipulate the vix is controle by the fed normale can not be so low normale level is always been 18 to 22 dollar ....?
+2 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion pascal.lambrecht.522
VIX? normal range is actually 10 to 18. Now we have another player that's almost as big as Fed, ECB. ECB is now moving on a QE much like Fed Reserve.
+1 Reply
maintain status QUO, cant raise rate, no QE, ROFL
+1 Reply
Can't raise rates while ECB is buying bonds. This would make the dollar rocket and Euro to break below historical lows too quickly.
+1 Reply
Will probably get a rate hike 6 months after ECB concludes QE program(s).
+1 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
the next triumph card to play around will be unemployment rate.. it will never get to < 5%, :-)
Reply
I think unemployment rate will hit 2 - 3% eventually. However, wages will stay flat or with very slight growth. Wage growth causes inflation, not unemployment numbers.
+1 Reply
Algokid PRO jangseohee
not this year , that for sure.
Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatius said this a few hours ago " "Our forecast remains for a September hike, but the risks now appear slightly skewed toward a later liftoff,"

Morgan Stanley " With our expectation that core inflation falls further from goal,and the lingering threats to growth and inflation from the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, we look for the Fed to forego rate hikes this year."



+1 Reply
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