SPX500 H4 Analysis - Short bias...but...

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
My line in the sand is 2078. I'm not considering any longs below it unless i get a really strong bounce signal at around 2040 (and even then I'd only consider a shorter term long trade!).

If you check out ADX , you'll see it has considerably dropped since the last low. In short, momentum's been dropping while the last ranging move took place. D- is right above 25, suggesting the bears are in control. ADX bounced off the 20 level and is now rising again...which also supports the bears.

In fact, for the last 3 times, ADX shot up every time the bears took over. The purple arrows highlight that.

I'll be looking for short entries on the H1 below 2078 and will reassess at 2040. I expect price to stall there a bit whether it bounces or breaks through. Hoping for a break personally, but "hope" isn't exactly a good thing when it comes to trading ;)

For shorts, my ideal entry would be around 2060-2065. At least that's where I'd like to get a decent short signal with rising momentum.

Should 2078 break, we'll head towards 2100...again...
Shot right through 2078 and holding above it so far. Would still like to see a nice short signal and expect it to be quite impulsive if it happens. For now, I can't go short because there's no signal on the lower TF.

Upside capped at 2098 temporarily if the move extends tomorrow.
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