We have three early signals now on 4 Hrs time frame: ROC71, ROC91, and weak Tenkan/Kijun cross.
The Key is obvious: 2025. There is 100 , horizontal level (Chikou Span peaks and bottoms) and Senkou B (future Kumo lower line). A close below this level would bring further selling.
You can already try to sell small size now at this Kijun Sen retest with a stop placed at/above recent highs.
Don't forget, the momentum can accelerate only if we see a break of the . Until then recent Price action should be considered as consolidation with some bias. Do not yet leverage yourself too much, take only small positions until the firm sell signal.
Key support level is touch higher by now at 2030.
Price of options depend on a lot of things and is always relative. You may think that due to a certain delta and volatility the Nov options are cheap, but don't forget about Vega risk. If you have a Long option exposure, time value can exponentially kill your position as you get closer to the option maturity. If you make a bet through November Puts, Price really has to start falling quickly and vol needs to pick up to make money on them. I prefer Dec maturity OTM Puts and Put Spreads to add to bearish positions.
I also hold the Long Dec VIX vs Short Jan VIX spread.
In a sudden crash I still don't believe. The insanity of Central Banks is about to hit the roof. I don't know if they really believe QE was/is/can be a solution to the "problems" they are "worried" about. I think they are making a huge mistake with money printing. Look at Japan's latest GDP! They are fckd, that country is in default. They have an always and forever increasing (actually blowing up) debt, no chance to ballance the budget at all as they will need more fiscal stimulus instead of hiking VAT further, and they are in a tripple dip recession now. Still their answer is print more! They try to use the same seed on a lot different soil. What "worked" for US (this is a question itself how much of recovery is due to the insane series of QE) will not work there.
Also the ECB is doing a huge mistake. They should not force this QE at all as the European real economy is a lot more different structure from US. Nevertheless this fear of deflation is a huge BS! Basicaly the models measuring the inflation (CPI) are outdated and not proper at all. I can tell you there is a lot higher inflation than the official numbers used. So the main point where they fck it up is that they are fighting against a non existing problem with a stupid tool. They should rather anchor inflation expectations up through communication. But you know why they are doing this: the show must go on somehow, as they realised whole Europe and it's banking system is insolvent, there is too much debt and too much leverage in the fiat ccy system. Their last chance is to get an even higher real inflation, and rob out the savers via negative real rates and pushing them into more and more risky investments.