SPX did not give us a high entry point on scenario 2, now it is a short area from 2036 to 2046 corresponding to scenario 3. Beware of FOMC positioning, it will be highly volatile so near stops are likely to be hit no matter if our direction and entry location is right or wrong. So, I would call it very risky, only a very low risk trade, with a far away stop. If FOMC is positive for market - look to exit with a minimal damage. But recent plays told us it can take from few hours to few days until market is provided with an appropriate narrative by CNBC and FT talking heads that suits FED a bit more.
Comment
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Market might give us a desired entry point at 2040 but be prepared to protect the entry early.
Trade closed manually
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Partial profit could be taken and the rest moved to B/E. In any case trade is off the books for now, wait and see mode
we are getting there, but no hike means weakening dollar it supports this very overextended market, so beware. I am a firm believer in a big correction and eventually new lows below 1800 in SPX BUT it has to break first. It could still keep pushing until after the expiration, so a break is only likely starting next week. My own bets are longs in euro and gold. I will look to start shorting spx next Monday most likely.