It appears that this rally, which I believe is a wave "C" of a correction, is well into its 5th wave and therefore nearing an end. It has gone higher than I expected, but the key question is whether it will reach higher than 2137.13. If it turns down before that point and falls below its origin , I will maintain the view that the S&P has already begun a downward correction. -- 7/16/2015
Since May 19th, I count an impulsive 1st wave down, followed by a 3-wave retracement, and then an impulsive wave further down to about 1.236 of the 1st wave's length. This has been retraced by another 3-wave "ABC" correction, of which the "B" was a triangle that has generated a wave "C" thrust back up to a nearly exact .618 retracement of the entire downward action thus far, and about .50 of the longer downward wave within it. A 3rd wave typically reaches 1.618 the length of the corresponding 1st wave, measured from the terminus of the 2nd wave. This one has not, so far. Furthermore, a subsequent 4th wave would not enter the area of the 1st wave as significantly as this one has. Therefore, assuming this count, I suspect this has been only the initial segment of the 3rd wave (1st of the 3rd). The 2nd of 3rd appears to have completed its retracement, and the 3rd of 3rd should now begin. 1.618 of wave 1 would be down to 2021.2154. If we use the so-labeled 1st of 3rd wave instead to estimate a downside target, assuming the 3rd of 3rd wave will be 1.618 of the 1st of 3rd wave, we may extrapolate the potential for the end of the 3rd of 3rd wave to be nearer to 1976.7 and the final 5th of the 3rd wave around 1936-1948. That would be followed by a probable .382-.50 upward retracement before the 5th wave down of the larger impulse began.
An alternate view is that the action thus far has, all in all, just been a 1st and 2nd wave, and that wave 3 is now just set to begin. In either case, the expected direction is down and significantly so.
Comments
look4edge
⋅
or maybe X up
AynCzubas
⋅
I see your chart showing wave 5's peak. Supposing wave 5 has completed, and this is end of cycle for the ending diagonal, I would expect a new impulse down to begin rather than further corrective waves though.
look4edge
⋅
mabye, however, i see no impulse structure down so far :(
AynCzubas
⋅
I definitely understand that. What I am labeling as the impulse wave 1 is very ugly and definitely not ideal looking, but have a look at this...
It's the 4th wave of it that threw me off at first. But, when I look at it this way, it shows a 4th wave triangle that had a very precise thrust into its 5th wave, and it did not end up overlapping the 1st wave.
AynCzubas
⋅
That small 3rd wave was between 1.618 and 2 of the length of the small 1st wave, and the small 4th wave (at triangle point "e") was just a slight bit over a .382 retrace of the 3rd, which I feel also help to validate the count.
look4edge
⋅
interesting point, you may be right, i like your thrusts btw.
in that case your supposed w3.2 may not cross 2130, for wave X no such problem, lets seePlease add a comment…
AynCzubas
⋅
Right, if it crossed above 2129.63, then I would have been wrong about wave 3 having already started. Even then it could still be wave 2 in progress, unless of course it goes above 2137.13 and invalidates the 1st wave all together.