SP500 - Don't bet on the top. Bet on the reversal!

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
225 0 2
"It's overbought!", "Too optimistic!", "Stocks valuation is insane", etc. Is it? I don't know. But should we care at all until px             is going higher? I feel as well a great temptation to short, but I don't pull the trigger, just because it "feels like toppish!". Yes there are clearly signs mkt is overbought. However trading is (or should be) betting with the highest probability. Probability of bearish move is increasing slowly, but not yet high enough to bet on it! Also, do not try to predict what is going to trigger the reversal. Everybody is surprised, maybe I am the most, that sad story of Ukraine, (which is far the most serious issue in Europe since the cold war) doesn't put any fear on the mkts. Of course if it breaks down next week, they will blame it on this story. What I want to tell you is that the risk is there, but the chances are not yet! Wait a bit more and watch carefully the followings:
Future cloud is getting tighter, so it will be easier to break through in case / 100 WMA and Senkou B (bottom line of the cloud) is getting closer to each other / the support zone 1835 - 1840 is very thin as well / First the trendline break will be important, then we have to watch for the Ichimoku sell setup signals / By the time px             crosses below the Cloud, Chikou Span (lagging blue line) will nicely support and confirm the bearish reversal too. When price breaks so many important levels at once, the move will be sharp and quick, with volatility increasing.

So if you don't like the highs of SP500             , simply do not buy it, but be a little more patient until the bear clearly shows up, then you can sell into it. You can be bearish biased, but that doesn't necessary mean you have to hold a bearish position too early.
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