FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
397 25 2
SPX             is on key resistance that would hold if the market was left to its own destiny.

But Draghi may unfold his long awaited QE             .

If so, SPX             may be subject to a forced breakout that may reach 2140 by year end.

That would make the current rally an 18% / 10 Weeks rally - VERY SHORTABLE against May13 Top to top line in logarithmic. It would be a 3% announcement forced excess.

that would "surely" give rise to a decent correction towards 1950 after which SPX             may climb more harmoniously to 2220 by Jul15.

This is the bull case.

Note:
1- Draghi may just kick the can and the market may not like it.
2 - Drahi may announce and the market sell the news.
YaKa PRO
2 years ago
The likelyhood of the excess is now very slim after the announcement.
The only upside risk is now of a drift nature (not vertical) and could climb to 2110 in January.
Odds of a decent correction to 2020, 1970 or 1914 is high.
Reply
Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
Bonjour Yacine,

I think the end is near for the DAX.
Two charts for you to look at (if you desire)
One with expected DIAMOND TOP formation
http://www11.pic-upload.de/05.12.14/47rzh5w73m5q.png
And one with the indicators flashing an upcoming turnaround
http://www11.pic-upload.de/05.12.14/w2at7d4gu4iu.png

Have a nice day.
Mickette
Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
Mickette, thx.
you may be right, there is something here. but if you take a step back and the market elects to breakout after giving the impression it is topping, it could be explosive to 10800/11000.

If there is a breakout here, europe will outperform the us 2 or 3 to 1.

only solution if you believe: options.
snapshot
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
Merci Yacine. I´m keeping your chart preciously in my DAX files.
Time will tell.
Reply
jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
Bonjour (Yacine), Guten Mogen Mickette,
Diamond Top is suspectedly going to turn into bear trend, but not 100% confirmed, just higher probability. SPX has MEGAPHONE which broke the upside resistance due to FED pressing "Print" button although QE has ended on the surface

And who knows Draghi finally rolls up his sleeve and press "PRINT" button also Dax will become ballistic :-)
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
From a consensus/ market psychology point of view, I see a lot of hope related to what Draghi may do and a lot of people called me this morning expressing the idea that the market may melt up.

A lot of people on the sunny side of the boat then... It may capsize... Watch the SP500, it looks capped here although flirting with line or even an excess of 2% is possible (unlikely though)
snapshot
+1 Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
the "Flirt" can continue just by hugging the resistance line
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Absolutely Jangseohee, that is what it did for 6 weeks in June/July14... it just did that for 2 weeks already... 4 weeks more to 2110 pain trade? or Santa Claus deception.
Charts can't answer here, Nothing/nobody can.
what is sure is: with a light short where you can up to 2140 (just 3.5% higher), you are likely to make money
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
as a matter of fact, i have 200+ shorts all are -5% now :-)
but options expiry at least June 2015
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
You shall get an exit opportunity before February... If it goes too far, you may have to just exit flat after pain. I hope it happens earlier. Good luck.
+1 Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
that's right, it depends on the "PAIN" i can tolerate
Reply