FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
397 25 2
SPX             is on key resistance that would hold if the market was left to its own destiny.

But Draghi may unfold his long awaited QE .

If so, SPX             may be subject to a forced breakout that may reach 2140 by year end.

That would make the current rally an 18% / 10 Weeks rally - VERY SHORTABLE against May13 Top to top line in logarithmic. It would be a 3% announcement forced excess.

that would "surely" give rise to a decent correction towards 1950 after which SPX             may climb more harmoniously to 2220 by Jul15.

This is the bull case.

Note:
1- Draghi may just kick the can and the market may not like it.
2 - Drahi may announce and the market sell the news.
The likelyhood of the excess is now very slim after the announcement.
The only upside risk is now of a drift nature (not vertical) and could climb to 2110 in January.
Odds of a decent correction to 2020, 1970 or 1914 is high.
Reply