1118 17 25
Here's where things stand.

On the year,
Safe assets outperformed risky assets.

Safe assets gained almost 2.5% post Brexit
While risky assets gained 3.9% since their Brexit lows

One of those is lying.
Thankyou for this interesting chart. I agree with your thesis.

I would have liked it even better if you showed what you have plotted to represent each of the asset classes. Good chart otherwise.
Reply
You're welcome.

As far as the tickers I used for Safe assets;

* Bonds - $VGIT, $VGLT, $VGSH
* Gold / Silver - $BPM
* JPY - $JPYUSD

For risky assets I used CFD's for major indices
* S&P - $SPX500
* DAX - $GER30
* Nikki - $JPN225
* FTSE - $UK100
Reply
DanV MOD Silver-Silver
I see. Thankyou for reply. Are combining these in some form of formula, to derive representing lines for safe and risk assets?
Reply
Correct.
The math is simple for the most part because I mostly aiming for direction of movement. The only thing worth noting is I had to multiply JPYUSD by 10000 to get it to be in the same range of decimals as the other tickers

- (10000*JPYUSD)+VGLT+VGIT+VGSH+BPM

For indices, I simply added them up with no adjustments, again...I'm looking for direction only.

- SPX500+GER30+JPN225+UK100

Reply
DanV MOD Silver-Silver
Right got that. Just wondering if it would make sense if you simply add percentage change rather than monetary change.
Reply
Good point. Here are the numbers individually (From the low of June 23 till where the ticker closed on July 1)

Risky assets:
SPX500 - 5.77%
GER30- 6.53%
JPN225 - 5.00%
UK100- 14.94%

Average for risky = 8.06% from low to close

Safe assets:
VGIT - 1.36%
VGLT - 5.97%
VGSH - 0.29%
BPM - 8.16%
JPYUSD - 4.28%

Average for safe assets = 4.01% from low to close

I summery, based on individual daily candle charts (where as the original chart is a line chart)
Risky assets gained 2% for every 1% safe assets gained since Brexit lows
Reply
DanV MOD Silver-Silver
Excellent, makes sense.
Reply
Silver, what's that histogram at the bottom of your chart?
Reply
So the histogram is the correlation between the two.

Regardless of whether they go up or down,

when they move in the same direction, you get a positive correlation coefficient - "CC" for short
when they move in opposite directions, you get a negative CC


Since the start of the year there has been a negative CC between the two asset classes 83.5% of the time.
Reply
Thank you Silver! I want to ask you a question: what if both are not lying at all? If they not, who's gonna compensate?
+2 Reply
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