ChartArt
Short

S&P 500 winning streak at jeopardy ahead of April Fed meeting

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
8 months ago
The cheap money addicted US market won't like a faster rate hike in April and might reply with a sell-off ahead of the next Fed meeting in April. Given also that the RSI value is in overbought territory at value 70 (see red alert) and the chance of a reversal is growing now that most feel confident again and complacency of bulls grows (see green consecutive SMA 14 up days). Adding to this potential pullback came the horrible terror attacks in Brussels today.

Two Fed Officials Point to Possibility of April Rate Hike (Bloomberg 2016-03-21)
There is sufficient momentum evidenced by the economic data to justify a further step at one of the coming meetings, possibly as early as the meeting scheduled for end of April,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Monday in Savannah, Georgia.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-21/two-fed-officials-point-to-possibility-of-april-rate-hike

Short entry: 2050
Stop loss: 2060
1. Target: 1960
2. Target: 1900
7 months ago
Comment: This chart is now two months old and it was made when I was still more bullish about the overall trend compared to my newer S&P 500 charts I made in April.

So far the more bullish projection starts to be the real live scenario which is actually playing out. This week started the bounce I had projected two months ago. Question is if this bounce will fade again or lead to a true breakout confirming the bottom area of February 2016.

snapshot


Chinese markets started to decline again and oil and tech showed weakness again, all in recent days, so I remain skeptic on the long-term future of this rally. It could be short-term dead cat bounce inside a larger dead cat bounce with the Brexit and Grexit and Fed hike news cycle growing importance in June.
dmorley12
8 months ago
I'll add that corporate buyback blackout period into earnings will not help the situation. BofAML states that their retail customers are sellers, not buyers. This will be in the hands of the institutional buyers, retail buyers and the PPT...
Reply
RationalTrader
8 months ago
the bulls are very strong now in this market...any dips is just new buying opportunities IMO and main bull trend replaced the day after several times the last weeks..
Reply
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